Pickin' Pigskin with Bob and Steve: Week 10, Part 2

Atlanta over CAROLINA (1.5)

Bob: Atlanta -1.5

At first I looked at this game and thought that this was one of those ridiculous lines. After all, Carolina has not done anything great this year while Atlanta at least has Matt Ryan, right? Upon further review, however, neither of these teams looks very good at all. Atlanta’s wins have come against Miami, Carolina, San Fran, Chicago, and Washington, while Carolina’s have come against Washington, Tampa Bay, and Arizona. So even though these two teams have inverses of each other’s records, the line makes a lot of sense. It is just hard to tell who is going to win this game.

I originally wanted to pick Carolina because I think that Carolina’s defense is actually pretty decent, while Atlanta’s offense is only moderately good. But looking at some other circumstances—namely DeAngelo Williams’ knee injury and Atlanta’s ability to score versus the problems Carolina has had stopping teams from scoring—I flipped the other way.

Steve: Atlanta -1.5

I still think Carolina is worse than they look because of Delhomme's rampant craving to throw interceptions. It would be like if you had a really hot girlfriend, but every week, she managed to throw up at a party. At a certain point, you would just be like, “Okay, that's enough, I can find a hot girlfriend that won't throw up all over everyone's shoes.” (A classy comparison on my part, by the way.)

MIAMI over Tampa Bay (10)

Steve: Miami -10

Tampa Bay switched their quarterback, which could account for why they haven't looked like complete ass in recent weeks. However, I don't think they can stop the Dolphins, who almost pulled the upset against the Patriots last week. Although, I am worried about the phaseout of Ronnie Brown from the running games. Hey Dolphins, actually run some plays for him! He can do more than just be the guy who gets the Wildcat snap.

Bob: Miami -10

I originally thought that since Tampa Bay looked frisky last week, this game could be close. Not necessarily win No. 2 for the Bucs, but close enough that it might be worth it to take the points. Miami isn’t exactly setting the world on fire, so a 10 point spread is a tough pill to swallow.

But I say to swallow that pill (considering the pills that are advertised during NFL games, there’s a good chance you’ll either get an erection or lower cholesterol, so bonus!). Tampa Bay is just awful against the run, and if there’s one thing we know it’s that Miami can run the ball. I hope the Wildcat formation burns in Hell, but for this week it makes this decision a little bit easier.

MINNESOTA over Detroit (16.5)

Bob: Detroit +16.5

Another game where the two teams have inverted records. This is a tough pick for me, because Detroit showed signs of life after their first win in a year, but has since gone back down into the depths of mediocrity. However, (and I have been burned by this logic before), the Vikings don’t have a tendency to blow teams out; they have only won one game by more than 16 points despite playing the Browns, Lions, and Green Bay. In addition, the Lions have shown an ability to hang in there. Although an upset would probably be too much to hope for against Brett “666” Favre, I’m hoping that Matt Stafford can at least manage a cover here.

Steve: Minnesota -16.5

I think you're absolutely high to be picking the Lions here, but that 16.5 line – essentially meaning the Vikings need to win by two touchdowns and a field goal – is quite daunting. But you know what? Screw it! On paper, the Lions have been just as horrible this year as last year, but they managed to eek out a win.

NEW YORK JETS over Jacksonville (7)

Bob: New York Jets -7

For a while there, John Cusack made a bunch of good movies. He was a fringe member of the so-called Brat Pack, appearing in Sixteen Candles, One Crazy Summer, and Say Anything, all of which are great teenage coming of age films. He then fell of the radar a little bit, before a few movies were written seemingly just for him—Grosse Pointe Blank, Pushing Tin (which also gave us the travesty that was Angelina Jolie and Billy Bob Thornton), and Being John Malkovich, all of which played in part on the comical neuroses that we first saw really coming out in Say Anything. His series of really good movies climaxed with High Fidelity in 2000. It was a great movie and seemed to be the perfect part for him even though it was based on a book.

Granted he had made a few stinkers up to that point (*cough* Con Air *cough*), but every actor is going to have a few downs. Still, at that point, things were looking great for John Cusack. How could he make a terrible movie like America's Sweethearts, Identity, or Must Love Dogs? Wait, he starred in all of those movies. Crap. Yet, every time I hear about a new John Cusack movie, I'm super excited about it. He has repeatedly had bizarre movies that I don't understand why he's making or movies that look good but end up being disappointing. Yet, when I heard about 2012, I was wicked excited again. It's like I have some Pavlovian response to John Cusack being in a movie.

Why do I tell you all about my John Cusack man-crush in a football column? Because I feel like the Jets season, in some ways, has been like John Cusack's career. They had a fantastic start of the season and looked like contenders. Yet, in their last five weeks they have looked beatable, including one of the all-time bad game plans against Buffalo (really, Buffalo gives up tons of yards on the ground, the Jets gain tons of yards on the ground, yet Rex Ryan decides to stake the game on Sanchez passing?). For whatever reason, though, I don't want to count them out just yet. Two of their four losses have been against the bizarre Wildcat Dolphins and the third came at the hands of the unbeatable looking Saints. Identity and 1408 could have been good, they just were poorly executed. Not John Cusack's fault. So I'm still not ready to count the Jets out yet. Plus, they are coming off a bye and Jacksonville has not exactly been setting the world on fire.

Steve: Jets -7

Wow, that was the most convulated John Cusack analogy ever! I agree with your take on the Jets, so instead, I'll use my space to rant against High Fidelity, which I think is a secretly horrible movie. On the surface, it seems good, like Requiem for a Dream. But I watched it again a year or so ago, and I was left with one thought – His character really is quite a miserable person. He is insanely neurotic and his actions in the movie are almost psychotic. And the ending... I feel like he just settles for the blonde, who's main problem is seemingly that she isn't fucking nuts like he is.

TENNESSEE over Buffalo (7)

Steve: Tennessee -7

Speaking of frisky teams, the Titans sure have looked decent ever since Vince Young took over the reigns! If only some smart, dashing guy had advocated that move at the beginning of the season, even if he is still iffy at picking games...

Bob: Tennessee -7

Well, there you have it. In my string of being wrong about just about everything last week, I wrote “I know that Vince Young was one of those guys who 'just wins' a few years ago, but I think the luster has worn off him.” Well, turns out that somehow Vince Young continues to “just win.” That, and Tennessee happens to have a certain runningback named Chris Johnson who is running like he's on a mission. Which is actually why I'm picking Tennessee here—Buffalo is giving up an average of 173 yards on the ground each week. If I were Jeff Fisher, I might just run my own version of the Wildcat the entire game.

PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati (7)

Bob: Cincinnati +7

Wow, this would be game of the week if the Mannings weren't playing the Bradys this week. Statistically, Pittsburgh is the somewhat better team, but Cincinnati seems to have some kind of intangible ability to pull off wins. The Bengals won the first matchup between these two teams, but it was a kind of fluky win. The Steelers have the home field advantage this week, but the Bengals managed to win convincingly in Baltimore last week. The Steelers have had convincing wins against contenders Minnesota and Denver in their last two games. Color me befuddled. I'm not going to feel good however I pick this game, so I'll just go with the points.

Steve: Cincy +7

I feel like I have to pick the Bengals, because otherwise, their streak could end just like *that*. (Imagine Airplane! when you read that.) And hey, if they beat the Steelers once, maybe they can stay within seven... Not really likely, but I'm willing to stake my (poor) reputation on it.

New Orleans over ST. LOUIS (14)

Steve: New Orleans -14

Dear Saints, please do not pull a Colts. By that, I mean do not let an inferior team stay kind-of close the entire game, and ruin this pick for me. You should beat the Rams by about 70 points. If you need some motivation, please remember that a ram would totally kill a saint if it had to, and the inverse is not true.

Bob: New Orleans -14

The luster seems to be wearing off New Orleans. They've had two close calls in as many games. There probably is a way to beat this team, but somebody better figure it out quick because there are a bunch of pancakes on their schedule. That being said, the Rams are scoring less than 10 points per game while New Orleans is scoring an average of 38. So I don't feel like this is even a challenging pick.

OAKLAND over Kansas City (2)

Bob: Kansas City +2

You smell that? Do you smell that? Raiders-Chiefs, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that. I hate the smell of Raiders-Chiefs in the morning. You know, one time we had a bomb of a game, for three hours. When it was all over, I walked up. We didn't find one of 'em, not one stinkin' good player. The smell, you know that dog-crap smell. Smelled like... New Jersey. (Hopefully that gets through, but for people who don't love Apocalypse Now as much as I do, that's a retake of Colonel Kilgore's speech from the aforementioned movie.)

Seriously, though, are the even going to televise this games in its home markets? These two teams are just atrocious. They are both at the bottom of the league on offense and defense. This could either be a game where the final score ends up being 33-37 or 2-9. You just can't predict it. The Chiefs are slightly less inept than the Raiders on offense, but they also just released their starting running back and are now featuring a guy named Kolby Smith, a fifth-round draft pick who in his career as a reserve has averaged 3.5 yards per carry. He might look like a superstar, though, against a Raiders defense that is giving up an average of over 160 yards per game on the ground. Believe it or not, the Chiefs defense is even worse in terms of average overall yardage, largely because of their terrible pass defense. Which I'm sure that JaMarcus Russell is well position to take advantage of, with the No. 31 passing attack he leads. No matter who wins this game, we all lose.

Steve: Kansas City +2

Your line at the end conjures up images of Alien vs. Predator, except that these two teams are about the polar opposite of those two mythical (I hope) beasts. This is more like the South Park election of Turd Sandwich vs. A Giant Douche. We still lose if either are elected, and they both smell bad.

I do quibble with your usage of rushing yards allowed here, though. Of course the Raiders give up more yards on the ground per game – Teams score at will on the Raiders, and thus run the ball 500 times in the second half against them. I feel like JaMarcus turning the ball over every time he touches it has a greater effect on their defense, since they still have some talent on that side of the ball.

ARIZONA over Seattle (9)

Bob: Arizona -9

I normally wouldn't be comfortable taking Arizona to win with such a wide spread, but these two teams matched up against each other less than a month ago at Seattle, and the Cardinals beat them by 24 points that day. Since then, Arizona has only lost in a game where Kurt Warner up and threw five interceptions. Also, when I was checking out Arizona's schedule on Yahoo, I noticed that Yahoo already had the Cardinals penciled in to win 27-3, the same score they won by in the first game. There is no way that this is a computer glitch, it must be that Yahoo has seen the future. So there's no way I'm betting against that.

Steve: Arizona -9

Seattle has been friskier lately, but still. The Cardinals should win this one going away, especially since they're not playing at Seattle, where I feel like the Seahawks are a superior team. I mean, Seattle doesn't have the Sonics anymore, so where else are Seattle sports fans going to go on a Sunday? (Sorry.)


Denver over WASHINGTON (3.5)

Bob: Denver -3.5

How the mighty have fallen. What would the spread have been on this before the Broncos got thrashed in succession by Baltimore and Pittsburgh? At least double-digits, right? This line is insulting. The Redskins are so bad, a local church felt the need to point out that God still loves them (a picture that I immediately posted on my Facebook). And Denver only needs to win by more than a field goal? What are people worried about, that master game-planner Jim Zorn has found Denver's weakness and will be able to exploit it just like those mediocre Pittsburgh and Baltimore teams? This is exasperating. If Josh McDaniels can't win by four or more points this Sunday, he should be fired.

Steve: Denver -3.5

I agree with you completely. This line looks utterly insane and silly. The Redskins have home field advantage, but I still feel like the Broncos should be two touchdown – or at least one touchdown – favorites. Whatever. I'm starting Moreno this week, so hopefully the Broncos can get up big and then just pound the ball for the fourth quarter, getting me sloppy yardage and touchdowns.

SAN DIEGO over Philadelphia (1.5)

Bob: Philadelphia -1.5

Speaking of the mighty and falling, San Diego is averaging 70 yards per game on the ground. That is the absolute worst in the NFL. That is absolutely crazy. I just Googled “LaDainian Tomlinson,” and the first headline was “LaDainian Tomlinson is washed up.” Talk about understatement. Upon further research, I was reminded that Tomlinson isn't the only significant, washed up player selected in the 2001 draft. Ladies and gentlemen, Philadelphia's own Mr. Michael Vick! In an angle that doesn't really seem to be being played up, the 2001 NFL Draft featured the Chargers trading their No. 1 overall pick to Atlanta, which the two teams used to pick Vick (Atlanta) and Tomlinson (San Diego). The Chargers received two other picks from the Falcons, which were used to draft Tay Cody, who lasted in the league all of three years, and infamous former Patriot Reche “Headlights” Caldwell, who also is no longer in the NFL. It's hard to believe that in eight years, two players of Vick and Tomlinson's caliber have gone from premiere players to a huge crap sandwich.

In terms of overall yardage, these two teams are extremely similar. Philadelphia has a much better run game (see last paragraph) but San Diego has the superior passing game. San Diego's rush defense is not very good at all while Philadelphia's pass defense is pretty mediocre. Honestly, this game is going to come down to which coach makes an epic mistake first—Norv Turner or Andy Reid. I'll give the edge to the Eagles since both teams have only beaten one good opponent—the Giants—and the Eagles won much more convincingly.

Steve: Philly -1.5

Just like your John Cusack analogy, I will agree with your pick while disagreeing with your analogy. First, getting about eight quality / All-Pro years that the Chargers got from LDT is a great return on that draft pick. In return, the Falcons got the privilege of watching Vick continually tease them with his talent. To make a comparison, LDT is like dating a girl who is a solid 7, but who is very pleasant to be around. Yeah, the Chargers never really won much with him around, but that's not his fault – You knew coming into the relationship that you needed to give a little more, and you didn't (you meaning A.J. Smith here), so now you're splitting amicably. I mean, LDT even knows that you have another lady – represented here by Darren Sproles – and he doesn't mind that much.

Conversely, Michael Vick is a 10 who is so batshit insane that it makes you constantly forget that she's a 10. Early in his career, it was injuries and inaccuracy that you had to put up with, but you kind of overlooked these because, well, he / she was still a 10. However, the dog-killing incident is equivalent to a girl fucking your best friend. You absolutely, positively can't overlook that, and Vick essentially killed that franchise for a year. And in Philadelphia, he and Tony Dungy are already making noise about getting out there to Buffalo (or Toronto, given how things are going there).

Dallas over GREEN BAY (3)

Bob: Dallas -3

I am really beginning to hate Green Bay. First, they gave us Brett Favre and beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. In 2007, they could have knocked off the Giants and then lost to the Patriots to preserve the perfect season. Then, they dicked around with Brett Favre, which made him determined to play until he dies. Finally, they put forward this year's team, which despite the fact that it has great statistical numbers it is completely unable to win games. They lost to the Bucs. The Bucs! On that alone, I don't want to pick them.

And remember when Dallas fans were hating on Romo a few weeks ago? That went from visceral hatred to crickets chirping in a few short weeks. I'm still not sure if Romo can win when it counts, but I'm glad that I, at least, stuck with him.

Steve: Dallas -3

You should get props for standing by your man, Tony Romo. I mean, when he's blasting through every hot celebrity out there, he really needs your support as well, Bob Hanson. Howdareyou.

Anyway, yeah, Green Bay is beyond frustrating. I feel like Rodgers is a poor man's early-career Peyton Manning – He needs a better supporting cast and general manager to give him the support he needs. I feel like if you put him on Minnesota, they would be undefeated, since he makes less stupid mistakes than Favre.

Baltimore over CLEVELAND (10.5)

Bob: Baltimore -10.5

Boy, I bet getting benched sure helped Brady Quinn's confidence. Eric Mangini is a master coach.

Steve: Baltimore -10.5

I didn't think Mangini's problems in New York were of his own making, but after seeing how this year in Cleveland is playing out, good lord... It's not like the Browns were any good anyway, but how he has played out the quarterback situation is reason to dump him alone.

INDIANAPOLIS over New England (3)

Bob: New England +3

I am, all at once, extremely excited and incredibly nervous about this game. I mentioned earlier that the Chargers and Eagles are very similar in terms of total yardage. Well, so are these teams. The Patriots and Colts respectively have the No. 2 and No. 4 offenses, complemented by the No. 7 and No. 8 defenses. The Colts have the better passing game but are also more vulnerable against the pass. The Colts give up, on average, one less point on defense but also score one less point on offense. There are three reasons I pick the Patriots: the Colts have started to look vulnerable, Belichick has far more experience, and Peyton Manning has to be getting tired from carrying his team. Also, considering how similar these two teams are, I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if it ends in a tie, so I'll take the points.

Steve: New England +3

All of the injuries to Indy, specifically to Bob Sanders and Adam Vinateri, make me go for the Patriots. Also, Randy Moss has finally been taken off the injury list, so he hopefully won't cost me another week of fantasy football. He's not even on my team, either! But if he had been able to stretch another six inches last week, he would have scored another touchdown, and I would have won. Sigggghhhhh.
The picture of Romo's new girlfriend is from here. The turd sandwich and giant douche are from the excellent South Park Studios site. And Lohan still looking hot is from here.