Pickin' pigskin with Bob and Steve: Week 13, Part 2

Denver over KANSAS CITY (4.5)

Bob: Denver -4.5

I know Denver hasn't been setting the world on fire lately, but they took care of a Giants team last week that, while mediocre, is worlds better than the Chiefs. This line is surprisingly low.

Even without considering that, though, it would be foolish to take the Chiefs based on the Cassel-McDaniels connection. A struggling NFL quarterback facing the coach who made him last year? Betting on the Chiefs would be like betting on Frankie Five Angels Pentangeli to take out the Corleone family. It ain't happening.

Steve: Denver -4.5

I was surprised at how easily the Broncos handled the Giants last week. It seemed like the Broncos were in a free-fall from their potential playoff spot, losing out to the Chargers in the grand scheme of things. Now, just a week later, I feel like the Broncos are the most likely of the AFC playoff contenders to actually make the playoffs.

Speaking of, did Josh McDaniels steal Bill's magic on the way out of town? Coming into the season, the Broncos seemed like a good bet to finish with a losing record, even in the porous AFC West, and the head coach and seemingly-franchise quarterback were feuding. Fast forward three months, and the Cutler trade looks like sheer brilliance, since he's sucking in Chicago, and the Bears owe the Broncos their picks as a result.

PITTSBURGH over Oakland (14)

Steve: Pittsburgh -14

I mistakenly assumed that the Raiders would put up a fight against the Cowboys, who were coming off a miserable game. The Raiders had a spunky win against the Bengals with a “new” old starting quarterback. Then they laid a complete egg against the 'Boys. Good times, good times.

So, in summary – Eff you, Raiders. I hope Mendenhall, who is now sadly my #1 fantasy football running back, rushes for a couple of touchdowns and 500 yards against you. You still have Richard Seymour, so I think this is unlikely, but still. A man can have dreams and hopes and goals in life, and chief among them should be fantasy football, of course.

Bob: Oakland +14

This isn't an endorsement of the Raiders. They have been awful this year. But the Raiders have not been as pathetic as St. Louis or comparable teams that regularly gets blown out by their opponent. They have certainly been blown out, including a 17 point loss to Dallas last week. However, they were able to hang in for both games against San Diego and they have been able to sneak wins against decent opponents like the Eagles and Bengals. On a good week, I think the Raiders may even be able to win this game.

Beyond the Raiders ability to hang into games, though, is the Steelers' ongoing slide. Pittsburgh has lost three straight, including a loss to Kansas City two weeks ago. Despite Baltimore doing everything they could to give away the game last week, they still were unable to win. Furthermore, it seems unlikely that Roethlisberger will play on Sunday. Even if I didn't feel like the Raiders had a chance, 14 points is too rich for my blood.

JACKSONVILLE over Houston (PICK)

Bob: Jacksonville

This is mostly to punish the Texans for failing to knock off the freaking vulture Colts last week. But Houston also doesn't defend well against the run, and I feel as though Jacksonville lives and dies with Miller Jenuine Draft.

Steve: Houston

Now now Bob, let's not let emotions get the best of you. Are you forgetting that the Jaguars shit the bed themselves last week? I realize they're playing this game at home, but that's not much of an advantage because their games are blacked out on television because of low attendance. I wouldn't expect a rousing, raucous Jacksonville crowd to spur them to a win; I think it's more likely that the sneakily-underrated Matt Schaub dissects the Jaguars on the way to an easy win.



INDIANAPOLIS over Tennessee (6.5)

Steve: Indy -6.5

Ah, the undefeated team vs. the suddenly hot chick. Besides serving as a flimsy excuse for me to include a picture of a hot woman, this game should be one of the best of the week. The Titans are suddenly the new “it” team, even if their chances of making the playoffs are still slim because of how horribly they started the season.

In this case, I think the long-term, sustained excellence of Peyton Manning will triumph over the suddenly hot Vince Young. To go back to the hot chick analogy, Young is like Megan Fox. Although I'm not the biggest fan of her, she is the go-to “hot chick” example of most present day situations. However, I will still go for someone who is less popular now but with a greater track record of hotness over time – Jennifer Love Hewitt, Jennifer Connolly, even a Mila Kunis or Sofia Veraga.

Bob: Tennessee +6.5

For once I don't feel terrible picking against Indy. Vince Young just wins and Chris Johnson continues to tear it up. Hopefully this game lives up to the hype instead of being a Colts blowout. This seems to be what happens in games that are supposed to be competitive upsets — remember Pats vs. Saints on Monday?

Philadelphia over ATLANTA (5.5)

Bob: Philadelphia -5.5

Both of these teams have good records but haven't looked particularly impressive. Furthermore, both teams managed to win only by three last week, which is good because they won but bad because their opponents were Washington and Tampa Bay. Atlanta's defense is really terrible, though, so I have no qualms about picking against them.

Steve: Atlanta +5.5

Just because I want to be different from you, I'll go with the Falcons here. I'm surprised this game isn't a pick, and Texans vs. Jaguars is, somehow. The fact that the Falcons are home is just gravy. Both of these teams are wildly inconsistent, so when you add it all up – Falcons are home, Philly wasn't super impressive last week, Falcons are getting 5.5 poins – I think the current employers of Matt Ryan are the winners.

CINCINATTI over Detroit (13)

Steve: Cincy -13

Oh, Cincinatti. How you tease me from week to week... Honestly, I don't have a ton of confidence in the ability of the Bengals to cover this spread, but I am more confident in their ability than that of the Lions.

Speaking of the Lions, I am impressed with Stafford. I thought he would be a bust coming into the season, but he is having more of a “shows flashes of greatness” quarterback season, a la Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan, than the ambivalent “well at least he didn't eff things up” debuts of Joe Flacco and Trent Dilfer and the aforementioned, suddenly popular only in this blog Bruce Gardowski.

(Speaking of, this almost makes me wonder how I can work in obscure back-up and former starting quarterbacks into every picks column. Watch out for next week, when I somehow start talking about Jim Sorgi, Tim Rattay and Michael Bishop! NFL back-up quarterback fever, catch it!)

Bob: Detroit +13

I get the feeling that I'm going to regret this pick. I initially penciled in the Bengals since they seem to have this uncanny ability to win and they seem due for a breakout game. However, as (I think) I noted last week, the Bengals have not been blowing out teams this year. They have only had two games this year where they scored more than 23 points and teams usually score in the double digits against them. So I'm not going to take them as 13 point favorites.

New Orleans over WASHINGTON (9.5)

Bob: New Orleans -9.5

I was disgusted by the way the Patriots performed on Monday. I hope the Saints go 16-0.

Steve: New Orleans -9.5

Well, that was pretty short and sweet, so I will be as well. The Saints are going to make that whole “smallpox blankets” thing seem tame in comparison to what they do this weekend.

CAROLINA over Tampa Bay (6.5)

Steve: Carolina -6.5

Ugh. I never know what to think with either one of these god damn teams. With Carolina, you have to wonder if Evil Delhomme or Good Delhomme is going to show up on any given week. With Tampa Bay, its coach sucks, and I have no idea how they manage to compete on a weekly basis with its offense, which is a rookie quarterback from the “well at least he didn't eff up” category.

I will side with the Panthers for two reasons. First, they're at home, and second, they're favored by less than a touchdown and extra point combination. Those two factors swing the equation over to Carolina for me.

Bob: Carolina -6.5

I can never decide if Neve Campbell is hot (or was hot, since she's not in anything anymore). It's not like she's hot in certain movies and not in certain other movies—her hotness varies wildly even from scene to scene. In one scene she can seem ridiculously hot but in others she just looks pouty and irritating. Upon further research (e.g. Google image search), I decided that she is hot when she is smiling but not when she is not. Thinking about the Scream movies, she always seemed particularly ugly when she was trying to emote. This seems like it would be a bad quality in an actress. This all being said, will this stop me from watching Scream 4, which is apparently being made? Absolutely not. Although isn't she kind of old for a series of movies that was really about teenagers/college-aged kids, and brings back fond memories of the 1990s?

Anyway, trying to decide whether Neve Campbell is hot is like trying to decide if Jake Delhomme will be good or not. It's a waste of time.

CHICAGO over St. Louis (9)

Bob: Chicago -9

The Bears are due for a big week. I hope the Bears bring in Donald Trump to deliver Lovie Smith the news at the end of this season, though. He seems like a nice guy, but boy are the Bears awful this year.

Steve: Bears -9

Both of these teams have been a crapload of suck this year. However, my trend of this week seems to be me relying on home field advantage, so I will do it again here. Yeah, Cutler and Forte have been one of the most disappointing, over-hyped one-two punches of the century.

But still, these are the Rams we're talking about. Again, to reference another trend of my responses this week, did you even know Kyle Boller was still in the NFL until he popped up as the injury starter for the Rams this season? I don't understand the fetish for him and other quarterbacks like Gradowski and Ryan Fitzpatrick. At best, they're going to be average, and more likely, they're going to suck. Why not take a chance on a rookie? If you're incredibly lucky, you might hit on the next Brady. Instead, teams play to minimize embarrassment – similar to the backlash against Belichick when he went for it on fourth-and-two – as opposed to maximizing their chance to win.

San Diego over CLEVELAND (13)

Steve: Chargers -13

After seeing the Chargers steamroll the miserable Chiefs last week, I feel fairly confident about this pick. I have no idea what kind of growth hormone LDT is on. His resurgence has been so shocking to me that I don't think its human growth hormone; I think cyclops or giant or centaur hormone is the more likely source.

Bob: San Diego -13

I may not know if Neve Campbell is hot, but I know if Eric Mangini is fat. He is.

Speaking of stupid, awful coaches. How is it that a Norv Turner-led team is on a roll like the one that the Chargers are on? It seems like we're in some bizarro universe. Has anybody checked Norv Turner and LDT for goatees?

SEATTLE over San Francisco (PICK)

Bob: San Francisco

At first I was surprised that San Fran wasn't favored, since they have the better record and have been generally more impressive looking than the Seahawks. But then I looked at their schedule and they are in St. Louis territory in terms of unimpressive numbers. But Seattle has managed four wins only because they came against St. Louis twice, Detroit, and the erratic Jacksonville team. So there's no way I can take them in this game.

Steve: Seattle

This is erratic vs. erratic. On the surface, San Fran should be the easy pick in this game, and yet... The last time I thought the Seahawks would be easily defeated, it was when they were hosting the Jaguars, and the 'Hawks went out and brutally crushed them.

With that in mind, I'm bucking that trend and picking the Seahawks. I honestly don't think they'll win this game, but hey. There is no rational reason for me to pick them, or for the line to be a toss-up, so I'm siding with Vegas on this one.

Minnesota over ARIZONA (4)

Steve: Minnesota -4

Another odd line. Minnesota is dismantling teams right now, and the Cardinals – if I recall correctly – lost against the Titans. The Titans are on the upswing, but still. If the Cardinals are really within a touchdown of the Vikings at this point, then they need to be able to win that game against the Titans last week. Leinart is underrated as a quarterback, at least to me, and the Cardinals should have been able to stop the Titans on defense on that last drive last week.

Bob: Minnesota -4

How is this even a question? Screw the Cardinals and you're making a mistake if you bet against Favre, at least in the warm weather.

Dallas over NY GIANTS (2)

Bob: Dallas -2

Dear Tony Romo,

At some point you will get sick of whatever bimbo you're dating now and get rid of her. Maybe it will be because she jinxed you like Jessica Simpson did or maybe it will be because you got her pregnant and no respectable NFL quarterback should stay with his baby mama unless she's a Brazilian supermodel. Either way, I have a recommendation for you for your next conquest. Let me introduce Dichen Lachman. She is a cast member of the soon-to-be defunct Dollhouse. She is crazy hot and also quite exotic looking since she has a Tibetan mother and an Australian father. Think about that for a second. We know that all Australians are hot. They are kind of like a poor man's Brazil. And we all know that Asian women are hot. Put those together, and you get some kind of super being. Well, that is Dichen Lachman. This will serve two ends. First, it will elevate her status so she will be in more television shows or movies. Every warm blooded male will thank you for this. Second, it will hold you over until Miley Cyrus turns 18 next year. Because, c'mon, we all know that is definitely going to happen.

Steve: Dallas -2

Wow. I'm left speechless. And please, it's Texas. I'm a bit surprised Miley Cyrus isn't already dating Tony Romo. Also, I wasn't aware of the oddly-named Dichen Lachman until just now, and I feel like I have led my life in the specter of darkness. She is very, very angular and odd-looking, but in an attractive way, somehow. She's kind of like a bizarro version of that weird-looking Asian lady from Grey's Anatomy and Sideways.

New England over MIAMI (5.5)

Steve: New England -5.5

This game makes me nervous. On paper, the Patriots should win it easily; I feel like they normally do really, really well in weeks following loses, as rare as that has been for them in recent seasons. The Dolphins are without Ronnie Brown, and Chad Pennington has been gone for so long that I forget he was originally a big part of that team.

But... The Patriots' offense is derived from the pass, and I feel like the Dolphins have a better-than-average pass defense that is getting better as their young players mature. I thought the Patriots defense was improving as well, but they have seemingly regressed as the season has gone on. Outside of Wilfork and Mayo, I'm not sure if anyone is consistently above-average. I still think the Patriots have enough to get by the Dolphins this weekend, but they don't have the consistency to play well for their portion of 60 minutes.

Bob: New England -5.5

It's a good thing that I've had a little time to cool off since Monday. For the first part of the week, I really felt as though a part of me had died. I remember my late high school and early college years, when you just had a feeling about the Patriots. You knew they could beat any team in the league, and even if they didn't it would at least be competitive. That's why that Halloween 2004 pounding by the Steelers was so surprising—the Patriots rarely got dominated like that. Either they beat themselves (like that Monday night loss in Miami where Brady threw a pick while he was on his ass) or they came up just short. Either way, you were pretty sure they would be able to pull it all together in crunch time.

That era is over. I don't think the Patriots can beat the elite teams in the NFL right now. We saw what the Saints did to the Patriots. New England was probably lucky to hang in with the Colts. I don't feel as though we would stand a chance against Minnesota and even beating San Diego seems like a stretch (Dear God, please don't let us see Bill Belichick be outcoached by Norv Turner in the playoffs). Which brings me to a second point: even though the Pats will likely make the playoffs, I doubt they can make it to the Super Bowl. My friend, who is a Bears fan, recently mocked my lamenting of the Patriots season by saying “at least you'll make the playoffs.” Is it really better, though, to know your team will make the playoffs but to also know that they have no chance of getting to the Super Bowl? It's not a moral victory, like it would be if the team had been terrible or mediocre for a few years. I'm used to seeing the Patriots as a championship-caliber team, but instead I'm watching them knowing that they will be knocked off by the Colts or Chargers in the playoffs. How is that better than having no emotional investment in the playoffs? I guess there is always hope, but still, this isn't a great feeling.

GREEN BAY over Baltimore (3)

Bob: Green Bay -3

Baltimore is on the low end of the league in terms of total number of sacks, so maybe Aaron Rodgers will actually get the chance to throw to his receivers. This game is tough to predict otherwise, though, because both of these teams have been fairly erratic this year.

Steve: Green Bay -3

You bastard, I was hoping that you would go with the Ravens, since I have a bit of a crush on Rodgers. Once he actually gets some protection, I think he becomes an elite level quarterback, year-in and year-out. As is, he's still pretty decent without a consistent running threat to take pressure off himself, and without consistent pass protection.

Anyway, to the game at hand. The Ravens' defense is seemingly coasting by on its reputation nowadays, and the great offense they showed at the beginning of the season seems to have been a mirage based on playing some bad teams. The Packers are erratic, but still play with a base level of competence that I think allows them to prevail.

The awesome John Madden picture from Family Guy is from here. The picture of Jennifer Connelly is from this site. The picture of Sorgi is from this blog. And the Dichen picture is from this forum.