Down on the Farm with the Red Sox - June 27

Last month, I looked at some Red Sox players who would be called up in the event of injury. Since that day, Josh Reddick, Daniel Nava, Felix Doubront, Angel Sanchez and Dustin Richardson have indeed made their debuts with the big club because of the plague-level maladies suffered by the Sox. Frankly, if you see any more injuries at the Major League level (I'm looking in your direction, Victor Martinez), then you'll probably just see the Sox swing some minor cash deals to pave over holes. The only other option in the minors at this point is rushing prospects like Jose Iglesias, Casey Kelly and Lars Anderson.

With that in mind, and since we're near the all-star break, I thought I'd take a look at how the Red Sox preseason top prospects are doing now at their respective levels. I've noted where they were on the Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America lists to start the season.

Ryan Westmoreland, outfielder
Rankings: BP #1, BA #1
Current Level: None

Well, if you haven't heard of Westmoreland's struggles, I imagine that you're not a Red Sox fan. He was diagnosed with a tumor on his brain stem, and underwent an operation on it in March. While it appeared successful, the severity of the operation means there is no guarantees about his future in life, nevermind baseball. I'm hoping the best for him, and you can read more about his progress back in an excellent Providence Journal article here.

Casey Kelly, pitcher
Rankings: BP #2, BA #1
Current Level: Portland, AA

Kelly has been inconsistent so far this year, which is surprising, since he agreed to focus on pitching instead of being a two-way player this year. (In previous years, Kelly also played shortstop once he hit his innings cap for pitching.) His overall ERA is 5.05 in 14 starts. Control is the big problem - He has gone from walking 1.5 batters per nine innings to 3.31 per nine this year. He is also giving up twice at many home runs. While this is a hiccup in his performance, he is still just 20, and he has minimal experience on the mound.

Josh Reddick, outfielder
Rankings: BP #3, BA #3
Current Level: Pawtucket, AAA

Reddick has been up to Boston twice because of injuries, and didn't really impress much there. After a demotion on June 25, he returned to Pawtucket, and he's 1-for-7 in two games. That hit was a home run, so that's good at least. BP's Kevin Goldstein said that he has a case of big league-itis, and his yearly line at Pawtucket has borne that out - a .215 average in 219 at-bats, with a .268 OBP and .370 slugging. He needs a strong second half to be seen as anything more than a fourth outfielder / emergency call-up now, since the next guy is hot on his heels...

Ryan Kalish, outfielder
Rankings: BP #4, BA #5
Current Level: Pawtucket, AAA

Kalish has played his way up to Pawtucket with a torrid streak at Portland. Assuming he doesn't get sent done, in 150 at-bats Kalish hit .293, with a .404 OBP and slugged .527. He was promoted to Pawtucket on June 1, but he's hit only .211 in 11 games. It isn't really cause for alarm yet though, as he spent a couple weeks on the Triple A disabled list because of a hip flexor issue. While he still needs to prove himself in Pawtucket, if he hits like he did in Portland, he probably makes Ellsbury or J.D. Drew expendable.

Anthony Rizzo, first base
Rankings: BP #5, BA #8
Current Level: Portland, AA

Rizzo is currently at Portland, although I'm not entirely sure why. In 29 games and 117 at-bats with Salem, he could only manage a .248 average, and a decent but not great slugging of .479. Those numbers have plummeted in Portland, which is generally viewed as a pitcher's park, to a slash line of 244 / 288 / 406. To be a decent first base prospect, you have to mash the #%@! out of the ball, and Rizzo is currently like a powerless Adam Dunn at the plate. He's averaging a strikeout a game so far this year.

Jose Iglesias, shortstop
Rankings: BP #6, BA #9
Current Level: Portland, AA

The rap on Iglesias coming into this season was that while he was the second coming of Alex Gonzalez or Orlando Cabrera with the glove, his offense left a lot to be desire. He's doing the best to dispel concerns about his bat though, as he is smoking the ball at Portland. He's hitting .306, and while he only has five walks and no homers, the average alone makes him an asset at shortstop. If this list was redone, he'd probably be vying for the #1 prospect honor with Kalish. With Marco Scutaro hitting well in Boston and signed through 2011, Iglesias can be left in the minors for now to solidify his progress at the plate.

Junichi Tazawa, pitcher
Rankings: BP #7, BA #6
Current Level: None

Tazawa had Tommy John surgery on his arm before the season began, and thus, he won't pitch at all this year. His upside looked to be more of a #2 or #3 starter, not a dominant ace, so the surgery probably knocks him down a spot or two from that peak.

Michael Bowden, pitcher
Rankings: BP #8, BA NR
Current Level: Pawtucket

Remember Abe Alvarez? He was a finesse lefty who threw strikes for Pawtucket in three full seasons with them, but he only made one Major League start and four appearances. He was finally cut from Pawtucket in 2008, and he hasn't resurfaced since then. He was always on the fringe for an emergency start in Boston, but he didn't really have overpowering stuff. (Dear Michael Bowden: You might want to study up on ole Abe's career, and ask for your release as soon as you can. In a pitching-poor organization like Kansas City or Houston, you would have already made a dozen or so Major League starts by now.)

Lars Anderson, first base
Rankings: BP #9, BA #4
Current Level: Pawtucket

Anderson was seen as a great prospect following a 2008 season where he hit 317 / 417 / 517, but since then, some injuries in 2009 really hurt his prospect status. He has recovered a bit this year, hitting .355 in 17 games with Portland to force a promotion to Pawtucket. So far though, he hasn't been able to solve Triple A pitching, hitting just .210 in 51 games and 176 at-bats. On the plus side, he has drawn 21 walks, which has elevated his OBP to .307. Unfortunately, he's not hitting for much power, with a slugging of .358. While his prospect status has been revived this year, he needs to start hitting at Pawtucket to be seen as anything more than a bench bat.

Reymond Fuentes, center field
Rankings: BP #10, BA #7
Current Level: Greenville

Fuentes is essentially Ellsbury v2.0, although this doesn't necessarily mean he is an improvement on the original model. In his first full season, he's batting .273, but his OBP is only .325. He has just 10 walks in 227 at-bats, and a slugging of .396, so he needs to work on taking pitches to get something he can mash. His speed isn't in question though - He has 27 steals and has only been caught once. Assuming he can maintain his average as he moves up the chain, he projects as an average center fielder because of his insane stolen base ability, which is what Ellsbury is now as well.

Derrik Gibson, second / short
Rankings: BP #11, BA #10
Current Level: Greenville

In 2008 and 2009, Gibson flashed an extreme eye, with more than 100 points of on-base solely from walks. That has dissipated a bit though in Greenville, as (I'm assuming) pitchers challenge him directly more. As a result, he's still hitting for little average (.239) without the walks to inflate his OBP (.308). He still isn't hitting for any power, as his slugging is a paltry .307, so it looks like he'll be stuck with the Drive until he can hit some of his own. (Ha ha, see what I did there? Priceless, I know.)

David Renfroe, pitcher / third
Rankings: BP #12, BA NR
Current Level: Lowell

Renfroe's first professional season is this year, and so far, it has been rough for the righty at the plate. He's only played nine games and has just 36 at-bats, and only has seven hits and 11 strikeouts. None of the hits have been for extra bases, which is a bit of a disappointment, considering that Renfroe is listed at 6'3" and 200 pounds. He was a high school pitching prospect as well, so there is some who think he might also give that a go, but so far he's only played in the field. Small sample size applies, but so far, Renfroe isn't doing much to prove he deserved the big bonus he got to sign for the Sox.

Alex Wilson, pitcher
Rankings: BP #13, BA NR
Current Level: Portland

Although he's only in his second professional season, Wilson is already at Portland because he's 23 and dominated Salem earlier this year. In 11 starts and 55 innings there, he struck out 50 and only walked 15. While Prospectus thinks his future is as a reliever, the Sox are letting him start for now. He needs to build on his success at Salem with Portland. His overall line of a 6.28 ERA is deceptive - He got shelled for seven runs in his first start, but in his two starts since then, he's given up three earned runs in 11 innings. Stamina is definitely a concern, since he didn't make it past the sixth in either start.

Stolmy Pimental, pitcher
Rankings: BP #14, BA NR
Current Level: Salem

Pimental hasn't excelled so far this year, continuing a trend of disappointing performances as he has moved up the Red Sox chain. He has gone from a 2.90 ERA in 2007 to 3.14 in 2008, 3.82 in 2009 and 4.54 this year. His strikeout rate has fell and walk rate risen along the way, suggesting that he's no longer a starting pitching prospect without a significant breakout.

Che-Hsuan Lin, left field
Rankings: BP #15, BA NR
Current Level: Portland

Speaking of continuing trends, Lin still isn't hitting for nearly enough power in the minors to be seen as a viable corner outfielder in the majors. While his on-base is 100 points higher than his average (.261 vs. .366) thanks to a good batting eye, his slugging is a paltry .310. He either needs to move to shortstop or bat .300 to be a viable option in the majors. Lin doesn't add enough on the basepaths (seven steals vs. nine caught stealing) to make up for his lack of power in a corner, especially with Kalish ahead of him on the depth chart.

The old prospector photo is from here.

Inexplicable Movie Review: Family Guy Presents Something Something Something Dark Side and everything else Star Wars

I am seemingly one of the 10 people on the planet who still catch everything Family Guy-related out there. As a result, I looked forward to the release of Something Something Something Dark Side, their remake of The Empire Strikes Back. This follows on the heels of 2007's Family Guy - Blue Harvest, a remake of the original Star Wars, which was pretty nifty. (The long name of the Empire remake comes from the "secret to Star Wars dialogue, from an earlier Family Guy skit, and which is presented above.)

Right now, the reviews on Amazon for the movie are mostly lukewarm, and the film is averaging 3.5 out of 5 stars. This surprises me a bit, as I considered this edition a bit better than the first, which has a 4-star rating. Something Something Something Dark Side follows The Empire Strikes Back almost scene for scene, so if you're not familiar with the source material, you probably won't enjoy this one.

But if you are an Empire fan, and a Family Guy fan, then this is required watching. The character roles from the original - Peter as Han, Lois as Leia, Chris as Luke, creepy perv Herbert as Obi-Wan and Brian as Chewbecca - are retained, even though Cleveland / C3P0 left for his own show. (Also, this time, Meg actually gets a line!) My only warning is that, although the DVD extras like the audio commentary are neat, the actual "movie" is only about 50 minutes - two regular episodes. There is some swearing, but otherwise, you might not think there is enough to justify $15 for two episodes.

Which brings me to the more important issue, one which I debated the other night with Baseball Prospectus author, Blast video games editor and all-around swell guy Marc Normandin - How do you rank the entire saga?


First off, I think it's easy to pick the bottom two - The Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones. I personally dislike Clones more. At least at the time it was released, Phantom Menace seemed technologically impressive, and there was a "buzz" about it, the first new piece of the saga in 20-something years. Clones felt like nothing more than a bridge movie to Revenge of the Sith, which is something you can't say about the original trilogy. Each of those movies serves a purpose, but stands as a dramatic piece on its own merits.

This might be controversial, but I consider the original, A New Hope, to be somewhat dated. It is absolute stunning the first time you watch it, just how epic the worlds are, and how involved everything with the Force is and what not. However, after that first time, you notice that a lot of the non-Obi Wan and Han Solo scenes can drag. It doesn't have as many signature action and drama aspects of the other movies on this list.

Okay, so we have three movies left to rank. As much as I like Sith, because it was the last movie released, I found it the least compelling of the "action"y three remaining. If Lucas could do it all over again as a six-movie deal, from start to finish, then Sith could be one of the better movies with some small changes. Basically, just end it with Anakin getting hauled out of the lava, and make it seem like he dies. Then, Padme dies, and we still assume that Vader is a separate Sith lord, and not Anakin, until the big reveal at the end of Empire. But, as is, I have to rank Sith as the third best.

Which leaves us with Return of the Jedi vs. The Empire Strikes Back. I realize I'm in the minority with this opinion, but I find Jedi to be most satisfying to watch. Yes, the Ewoks are gimmicky, and they span all of the most awful Jar Jar Binksian parts of the next two movies, but I still think they serve as a nice balance to all the grimness as the end of Empire and throughout the rest of Jedi.

In fact, this sheer darkness at the end of Empire is why I favor Jedi. At the end of Empire, you find out that Luke's real dad is one of the most evil mother effers in the galaxy, Luke loses in direct combat to Vader, Han Solo is encased in carbonite and under the control of an evil gangster and the Rebellion's base on Hoth is destroyed. That's a whole big bucket of depression right there.

The photo original Family Guy inspiration for the title of its Empire spoof (whew, that's a mouthful) is from this blog. The duel photo is from this site, somewhere on it.

Karma vs. Statistics

I'm not a big believer in karma, but I do believe in statistics, if that makes any sense at all.

In a literal sense, when it comes to baseball, basketball and football, I'm much more apt to believe a statistical-perspective of, say, Baseball Prospectus, than scouts and idiots like Joe Morgan who once played baseball. Oddly, I think this is related to my own writing "talent". I've never considered myself much of a writer, but I get paid to do it for work, and got good grades for it through high school and college. Therefore, I must be doing something write (ha ha, get it, I made an error on purpose). However, I couldn't really tell someone else how I do it, not with any certainty, and likewise, I think it's silly that we rely on Morgan, John Kruk, Fernando Vina and others to give us the scoop on what Major League Baseball players are doing wrong, at least when there is statistical evidence proving them wrong.

But, in the non-sports world, I don't think karma exists. I don't believe there is a cosmic force balancing right and wrong. However, I do believe that statistics still apply - You simply can't keep doing, for lack of a better term, bad things, forever. At some point, things catch up with you.

I love watching TruTV, and especially their Forensic Files and Masterminds series. Basically, after 11, when most stations switch to crap, both of these shows are on all the time, and are fantastic. And I'm always struck by how, especially on Masterminds, everyone eventually gets caught. As far as I know, there have only been two major cases that were never solved - Who stole the French crown jewels, and who D.B. Cooper was. I'm sure there is some minor stuff that I'm not aware of, but for the most part, if you do bad, you eventually get caught.

... This is a bit of a rambling post. Sorry. I was just thinking about all of this lately because of personal stuff going on in my own life. I've had some bad luck lately, and I'm just waiting for it to equalize out a bit. I try my best to fight through it by making my own luck, but hey, sometimes you need some chance - some karma, or better yet, statistics - on your side too. Random philosophy out.

The image is from this blog.

Bag of baseballs > .265 average

The Red Sox parade of mediocrity from my youth: Jack Clark,
Jose Offerman, Tom Brunansky and Troy O'Leary.

I realize that a lot of people reading my blog are sports fans, because I mostly follow sports bloggers, writers and columnists on Twitter, yet I haven't written any posts on sports lately. From reading my last 10 entries or so, you'd think I was obsessed with television commercials, 1990s movies and providing flip remarks to music that randomly appears on my iTunes playlist. (For the record, you wouldn't be wrong if you assumed “yes” to any of the three.)

Therefore, let me debate an issue that comes up around the trade deadline every year – The idea that some teams are “giving up” by trading veteran players. It is almost always hogwash, and a claim made by lazy sportswriters, radio show hosts and the general public.

The outcry seemed most intense this year toward Pittsburgh Pirates GM Neil Huntington. For some reason, the maddening crowds (thanks Thomas Hardy!) screamed that he should have kept Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson, even though both have, you know, been on the team for the half-dozen or so years it has really sucked. Without Sanchez and Wilson, you might go 70-92 instead of 65-97, and even this might be an overstatement.

The perception of them as above-average players seems to exist solely because of counting stats – i.e. at-bat dependent stats like home runs, RBI and hits.

Freddy Sanchez's combined line between Pittsburgh and San Fran is .299, but his OBP is only .338, and he doesn't hit for enough power or play a great 2B, SS or 3B. At "just" $4 million, I suppose he's priced-appropriately for his price tag, except that you can find some minor league guys to play as well as he does, and pool the savings at that position and somewhere else to get a marquee player.

Jack Wilson's line is even more hack-tastic, as his OBP doesn't break .300. Even if he is a SS, that's unacceptable. He can defend really well, but he's not Ozzie Smith, which he has to be to justify his sub-par production at the plate and $6.65 million salary.

Getting anything for them, even if it's just salary relief, is better than holding on to them and seeing what little value they have crater when they finally do put up a .200 average.

To dip into baseball history a bit here, I've always been a fan of the Branch Rickey philosophy of dealing a player a year too early as opposed to a year too late. For example, even though this is sacrilegious for a Red Sox fan to say, I would have loved to see them trade David Ortiz to a stupid GM after his big year in 2007. Since he was a big, fat 1B / DH, like Mo Vaughn and Boog Powell and Mark McGwire and Travis Hafner and Cecil Fielder, there was a really good chance that his production was going to crater, which it has so far this year. Therefore, if I wouldn't have a problem with the Red Sox dealing Ortiz, I feel even less remorse for the idea of the Pirates dealing (overvalued) veterans for any sort of prospects with a pulse.

Of course, the Red Sox want to hold on to Ortiz for reasons other than his ability to hit a baseball. While they wouldn't have to worry about attendance falling off without him there, I'm sure the merchandise sales on a guy like Ortiz are in the millions of dollars, so there is an ancillary benefit that can't really be replaced, sort of somehow managing to trade Ortiz for Albert Pujols. For example, Ortiz straight-up for Adrian Gonzalez would have been a win on the field for the Red Sox, but I imagine it would actually hurt revenue.

As is, the Red Sox have probably maximized their “on-field performance” revenue – They've won consistently for the past six years, with playoff appearances in five and two World Series championships, and they recently set the record for straight home sell-outs. Because they have capped their performance-based revenue, it does make sense that they use their large financial cushion to hold on to fan favorites (Ortiz, Lowell, Manny Ramirez and his drama as long as they did) in order to maximize non-performance revenue.

However, I think this only applies to perennial contenders who can rely on strong gates despite week-to-week and month-to-month dips in team quality – Red Sox, Yankees, maybe the Mets, Angels and Dodgers. If you are a small to mid-market team, and your attendance and revenue is going to more strongly tied to this current season's record, then you want to do your best to maximize your record, or failing that, to maximize future records (trade veterans for prospects).