Showing posts with label Boston Red Sox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boston Red Sox. Show all posts

Monday, August 9, 2010

No Anchorman 2 :(


I'm running late again tonight, and I fell asleep watching the Red Sox play lose horribly to the Yankees last night, so this one is just a quickie about a horrible thing - There will be no Anchorman 2. (Note: Baggage write-ups will return Wednesday.)

The movie officially isn't being greenlit, according to sources, because of how huge all the stars' salary is now. At first, I thought this was silly. Even if it's bad, Anchorman 2 probably makes at least $100 million, and probably more in the $150 million to $400 million range, after you factor in international distribution and what not. It's an easy, obvious cash cow.

But then, I thought about it more. Will Ferrell would probably command $20 million, Carrell around $10 million to $15 million, and maybe $10 million for Paul Rudd. Applegate is probably around $5 million. The other minor cast (sorry David Koechner) and cameos, you figure in $10 million. We're already up to $55 million to $60 million. On top of that, Ferrell and Carrell are big enough stars that they would probably both get percentage points of the revenues, further cutting into the profits. This is also overlooking that Adam McKay is no longer somewhat unknown as a director and writer, and he would have to be paid for both, along with possibly a writing credit (and thus more grosses) for Ferrell.

So yeah, all of that adds up. Still, it's disappointing to realize the movie won't get made. I'll revisit this a bit in the future though, when I share my review of a great book about the rise and fall of DreamWorks.

The awesome wallpaper is from here.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

The Steinbrenner and Kill Bill connection


One of my favorite scenes of Kill Bill: Volume 2 is when Budd, Bill's drunken brother, is questioning Elle Driver in his shabby trailer. Elle has come because Bill has (apparently) killed The Bride, the trained assassin getting revenge on the crew that crossed her. Elle expresses regret that Budd, a drunken lout, has killed what is essentially her greatest rival.

Budd: So, which "R" you filled with?

Elle Driver: What?

Budd: They say the number one killer of old people is retirement. People got a job to do, they tend to live a little bit longer so they can do it. I've always figured that warriors and their enemies share the same relationship. So, now that you're not gonna have to face your enemy no more on the battlefield, which "R" you filled with? Relief … or regret?

Elle Driver: A little bit of both.

Budd: Horseshit. I'm sure you do feel a little bit of both. But I know damn well that you feel one more than you feel the other. And the question was, which one is it?

Elle Driver: [pause] Regret.


I feel somewhat similar about the passing of Yankees owner George Steinbrenner. When he owned the team and handled the day-to-day operations of it, I hated the miserable old bastard. Every year, the Yankees didn't hesitate to snatch the prime free agents right out from under the Red Sox. By all accounts, he was a mean, angry bastard who demanded that his teams win, and he was twice suspended by Major League Baseball for his attempts to bend the rules to win.

However, because he was such a tyrannical figure, it made him the perfect villain and adversary. Steinbrenner was easy to hate, and ever since his sons took over the day-to-day operations of the team, the Yankees have become (dare I say?) a more respectable organization. This disappoints me as a Red Sox fan, since the ALCS victory and eventual World Series championship in 2004 - in seven games, down three games to none, against the Yankees - was the sweetest possible comeback of all-time, and Steinbrenner's gigantic presence helped.

Therefore, I'm saddened by his passing today. One of the worst things to happen to professional sports in the past 30 years to me has been the increasing corporate culture and atmosphere surrounding all of them. Sure, the analytical nature of the Red Sox has helped them to a couple World Series titles, which I'm grateful for.

However, I think that could have happened anyway without the passing of the larger-than-life figures like Steinbrenner into the mists of history. With him gone, only the NBA's Mark Cuban is left as a guy who consistently rocks the boat, although I'm hopeful that the Bond villain who bought the New Jersey Nets will contribute as well. Steinbrenner didn't give a shit about profits or payroll - that cranky old bastard wanted to win. Every sports league needs more owners like him, as opposed to billionaires who care more about sticking it to the unions.

The picture at the top comes from this site.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Down on the Farm with the Red Sox - June 27

Last month, I looked at some Red Sox players who would be called up in the event of injury. Since that day, Josh Reddick, Daniel Nava, Felix Doubront, Angel Sanchez and Dustin Richardson have indeed made their debuts with the big club because of the plague-level maladies suffered by the Sox. Frankly, if you see any more injuries at the Major League level (I'm looking in your direction, Victor Martinez), then you'll probably just see the Sox swing some minor cash deals to pave over holes. The only other option in the minors at this point is rushing prospects like Jose Iglesias, Casey Kelly and Lars Anderson.

With that in mind, and since we're near the all-star break, I thought I'd take a look at how the Red Sox preseason top prospects are doing now at their respective levels. I've noted where they were on the Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America lists to start the season.

Ryan Westmoreland, outfielder
Rankings: BP #1, BA #1
Current Level: None

Well, if you haven't heard of Westmoreland's struggles, I imagine that you're not a Red Sox fan. He was diagnosed with a tumor on his brain stem, and underwent an operation on it in March. While it appeared successful, the severity of the operation means there is no guarantees about his future in life, nevermind baseball. I'm hoping the best for him, and you can read more about his progress back in an excellent Providence Journal article here.

Casey Kelly, pitcher
Rankings: BP #2, BA #1
Current Level: Portland, AA

Kelly has been inconsistent so far this year, which is surprising, since he agreed to focus on pitching instead of being a two-way player this year. (In previous years, Kelly also played shortstop once he hit his innings cap for pitching.) His overall ERA is 5.05 in 14 starts. Control is the big problem - He has gone from walking 1.5 batters per nine innings to 3.31 per nine this year. He is also giving up twice at many home runs. While this is a hiccup in his performance, he is still just 20, and he has minimal experience on the mound.

Josh Reddick, outfielder
Rankings: BP #3, BA #3
Current Level: Pawtucket, AAA

Reddick has been up to Boston twice because of injuries, and didn't really impress much there. After a demotion on June 25, he returned to Pawtucket, and he's 1-for-7 in two games. That hit was a home run, so that's good at least. BP's Kevin Goldstein said that he has a case of big league-itis, and his yearly line at Pawtucket has borne that out - a .215 average in 219 at-bats, with a .268 OBP and .370 slugging. He needs a strong second half to be seen as anything more than a fourth outfielder / emergency call-up now, since the next guy is hot on his heels...

Ryan Kalish, outfielder
Rankings: BP #4, BA #5
Current Level: Pawtucket, AAA

Kalish has played his way up to Pawtucket with a torrid streak at Portland. Assuming he doesn't get sent done, in 150 at-bats Kalish hit .293, with a .404 OBP and slugged .527. He was promoted to Pawtucket on June 1, but he's hit only .211 in 11 games. It isn't really cause for alarm yet though, as he spent a couple weeks on the Triple A disabled list because of a hip flexor issue. While he still needs to prove himself in Pawtucket, if he hits like he did in Portland, he probably makes Ellsbury or J.D. Drew expendable.

Anthony Rizzo, first base
Rankings: BP #5, BA #8
Current Level: Portland, AA

Rizzo is currently at Portland, although I'm not entirely sure why. In 29 games and 117 at-bats with Salem, he could only manage a .248 average, and a decent but not great slugging of .479. Those numbers have plummeted in Portland, which is generally viewed as a pitcher's park, to a slash line of 244 / 288 / 406. To be a decent first base prospect, you have to mash the #%@! out of the ball, and Rizzo is currently like a powerless Adam Dunn at the plate. He's averaging a strikeout a game so far this year.

Jose Iglesias, shortstop
Rankings: BP #6, BA #9
Current Level: Portland, AA

The rap on Iglesias coming into this season was that while he was the second coming of Alex Gonzalez or Orlando Cabrera with the glove, his offense left a lot to be desire. He's doing the best to dispel concerns about his bat though, as he is smoking the ball at Portland. He's hitting .306, and while he only has five walks and no homers, the average alone makes him an asset at shortstop. If this list was redone, he'd probably be vying for the #1 prospect honor with Kalish. With Marco Scutaro hitting well in Boston and signed through 2011, Iglesias can be left in the minors for now to solidify his progress at the plate.

Junichi Tazawa, pitcher
Rankings: BP #7, BA #6
Current Level: None

Tazawa had Tommy John surgery on his arm before the season began, and thus, he won't pitch at all this year. His upside looked to be more of a #2 or #3 starter, not a dominant ace, so the surgery probably knocks him down a spot or two from that peak.

Michael Bowden, pitcher
Rankings: BP #8, BA NR
Current Level: Pawtucket

Remember Abe Alvarez? He was a finesse lefty who threw strikes for Pawtucket in three full seasons with them, but he only made one Major League start and four appearances. He was finally cut from Pawtucket in 2008, and he hasn't resurfaced since then. He was always on the fringe for an emergency start in Boston, but he didn't really have overpowering stuff. (Dear Michael Bowden: You might want to study up on ole Abe's career, and ask for your release as soon as you can. In a pitching-poor organization like Kansas City or Houston, you would have already made a dozen or so Major League starts by now.)

Lars Anderson, first base
Rankings: BP #9, BA #4
Current Level: Pawtucket

Anderson was seen as a great prospect following a 2008 season where he hit 317 / 417 / 517, but since then, some injuries in 2009 really hurt his prospect status. He has recovered a bit this year, hitting .355 in 17 games with Portland to force a promotion to Pawtucket. So far though, he hasn't been able to solve Triple A pitching, hitting just .210 in 51 games and 176 at-bats. On the plus side, he has drawn 21 walks, which has elevated his OBP to .307. Unfortunately, he's not hitting for much power, with a slugging of .358. While his prospect status has been revived this year, he needs to start hitting at Pawtucket to be seen as anything more than a bench bat.

Reymond Fuentes, center field
Rankings: BP #10, BA #7
Current Level: Greenville

Fuentes is essentially Ellsbury v2.0, although this doesn't necessarily mean he is an improvement on the original model. In his first full season, he's batting .273, but his OBP is only .325. He has just 10 walks in 227 at-bats, and a slugging of .396, so he needs to work on taking pitches to get something he can mash. His speed isn't in question though - He has 27 steals and has only been caught once. Assuming he can maintain his average as he moves up the chain, he projects as an average center fielder because of his insane stolen base ability, which is what Ellsbury is now as well.

Derrik Gibson, second / short
Rankings: BP #11, BA #10
Current Level: Greenville

In 2008 and 2009, Gibson flashed an extreme eye, with more than 100 points of on-base solely from walks. That has dissipated a bit though in Greenville, as (I'm assuming) pitchers challenge him directly more. As a result, he's still hitting for little average (.239) without the walks to inflate his OBP (.308). He still isn't hitting for any power, as his slugging is a paltry .307, so it looks like he'll be stuck with the Drive until he can hit some of his own. (Ha ha, see what I did there? Priceless, I know.)

David Renfroe, pitcher / third
Rankings: BP #12, BA NR
Current Level: Lowell

Renfroe's first professional season is this year, and so far, it has been rough for the righty at the plate. He's only played nine games and has just 36 at-bats, and only has seven hits and 11 strikeouts. None of the hits have been for extra bases, which is a bit of a disappointment, considering that Renfroe is listed at 6'3" and 200 pounds. He was a high school pitching prospect as well, so there is some who think he might also give that a go, but so far he's only played in the field. Small sample size applies, but so far, Renfroe isn't doing much to prove he deserved the big bonus he got to sign for the Sox.

Alex Wilson, pitcher
Rankings: BP #13, BA NR
Current Level: Portland

Although he's only in his second professional season, Wilson is already at Portland because he's 23 and dominated Salem earlier this year. In 11 starts and 55 innings there, he struck out 50 and only walked 15. While Prospectus thinks his future is as a reliever, the Sox are letting him start for now. He needs to build on his success at Salem with Portland. His overall line of a 6.28 ERA is deceptive - He got shelled for seven runs in his first start, but in his two starts since then, he's given up three earned runs in 11 innings. Stamina is definitely a concern, since he didn't make it past the sixth in either start.

Stolmy Pimental, pitcher
Rankings: BP #14, BA NR
Current Level: Salem

Pimental hasn't excelled so far this year, continuing a trend of disappointing performances as he has moved up the Red Sox chain. He has gone from a 2.90 ERA in 2007 to 3.14 in 2008, 3.82 in 2009 and 4.54 this year. His strikeout rate has fell and walk rate risen along the way, suggesting that he's no longer a starting pitching prospect without a significant breakout.

Che-Hsuan Lin, left field
Rankings: BP #15, BA NR
Current Level: Portland

Speaking of continuing trends, Lin still isn't hitting for nearly enough power in the minors to be seen as a viable corner outfielder in the majors. While his on-base is 100 points higher than his average (.261 vs. .366) thanks to a good batting eye, his slugging is a paltry .310. He either needs to move to shortstop or bat .300 to be a viable option in the majors. Lin doesn't add enough on the basepaths (seven steals vs. nine caught stealing) to make up for his lack of power in a corner, especially with Kalish ahead of him on the depth chart.

The old prospector photo is from here.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

I don't give an eff if you're not watching the World Cup.

See? The World Cup brings people together.

As the title of this entry implies, I have a bit of an issue with some sports fans. Namely, people who are proud that they're not watching a sporting event that billions of people across the world watch.

Now, I'm not a huge soccer fan. Outside of the World Cup, the only time I catch a game is when literally nothing else is on television. I like the peaceful noise in the background, assuming those blasted vuvuzela aren't involved, that a soccer game provides. Do I think it's the world's greatest television sport? Not especially.

However, I don't understand the knee-jerk, deeply rooted hate some people have for soccer and the World Cup. Yes, ESPN is running a lot of publicity for it. Summer just started folks, so if you're not into the World Cup, your other "summer storylines" are baseball, Lebron and Wimbledon. I don't think its fair to slam ESPN for covering the heck out of the World Cup, since it is the biggest event going and appeals to many casual sports fans in the same way the Olympics do.

On my way to work today, all the morning show guys on WEEI wanted to do was complain about soccer. Listen, I can understand that some people just don't like the game. As I previously said, I'm not the biggest soccer fan in the world. I don't understand the desire for others who allegedly hate the game to spend vital radio time making unfunny jokes about it. (Between this and the constant politics talk on Dennis and Callahan, I mostly listen to music in the mornings instead of WEEI.)

The thing I find oddest about this is that the hosts and callers seemed proud to really, really hate soccer. I dislike carrots and Sex and the City - It's not like I take a deep pride in ether. They're just facts. They also mentioned their extreme dislike of the metric system, which always seemed to me like a perfectly reasonable system, so maybe I'm just not enough of a xenophobe.

If you don't like soccer, stop spending hours lecturing your audience about why they shouldn't like it. Instead, talk about something you do enjoy - It's not like the Boston sports landscape lacks interesting topics to talk about, between the Celtics recently losing in the NBA finals and their uncertain roster situation, the Red Sox surging, and the Patriots' uncertain contract situations in Brady and Logan Mankins.

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Baseball Prospects: Sometimes I'm smart!

At this time two weeks ago, I was looking at some Red Sox prospects that could be called up. While I was initially off on Josh Reddick - he got called up for a short stint - I was correct in assuming that Daniel Nava would be up if another outfielder got hurt for the Red Sox.

Jeremy Hermida fractured his ribs in the outfield collision with Adrian Beltre the other week, so the Sox called up Nava to take his place, after a short stint from Reddick. (For what it's worth, Reddick played in five games and got two hits in 11 at-bats, so he's not really ready for prime time. Likewise, Boof Bonser has sucked with the Red Sox as much as he did with the Pawsox.) Nava has done a bit better in his first impression, smacking a grand slam in his first Major League at-bat Saturday, and following it up with another two hits today.

The freaky thing about Nava was his pre-game interview with Sox radio announcer Joe Castiglione, which I heard in my car yesterday afternoon. As the interview was ending, Joe told him to swing at the first pitch he saw and knock it out of the park. In the second inning, Nava came up with the bases loaded, swung at the first pitch he saw, and launched it into the bleachers!

I'm hoping his other goal comes true soon - Nava always leaves a ticket at the box office for Erin Andrews of ESPN. He originally did it one day while he was playing with the Pawtucket Red Sox, as a bit of a joke, and he and his teammates have kept up with it ever since. Since it sounds like he might actually get to meet her now, the strategy has paid off quite well for him.

As far as Nava's chances of sticking in the big leagues, they seem pretty slim. Once Hermida or Jacoby Ellsbury gets healthy, the Sox have to make a roster decision between Darnell McDonald and Nava. McDonald has the inside track, since he can also play center, and also because he's out of options. The Sox can send Nava back to the minors without having to put him on waivers, I believe. So, if Nava wants to stick in the majors, he needs to continue smacking the snot out of the ball. I hope he does so, since other aspects of his background, like getting cut from his college and independent ball teams, make for a great story.

The Nava pic is from WEEI.

Sunday, May 30, 2010

Down on the farm with the Red Sox - May 30

Not this farm.

Since the television season is for the most part over, except for the summer series and replacement shows, I'll be peppering in some sports analysis here and there. However, since there are a lot of good blogs about the Red Sox, and especially the Sox on the Major League level, I thought I'd focus on the minor league system.

Specifically, I want to look at a couple things. One, anyone on the AAA or AA roster that might be called up in the case of an injury. Two, any prospects who were well-regarded coming into the season. (I'll be using Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America lists for this.) And three, anyone who has a ridiculous statistical line so far in the season. I'll look at AAA and AA individually tonight. All stats seem to be updated through May 29, with no May 30 games included.

Triple A - Pawtucket - Batting

Josh Reddick, CF, 23. According to Friday's chat with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, Reddick is pressing. He specifically wrote, "Triple-A-itis. Tasted the big leagues and wants to get back, so he's trying to get five hits or a five-run home run in every at-bat." That might be an understatement, as Reddick is hitting .181 in 171 AB, with five home runs. Even his defense has seemingly fallen apart, as he has four errors too. While he might want to be back in the Majors, at this point a stint in Portland seems more likely, to try and restore some confidence at the plate. He has gone from the outer fringes of the outfield decision at the end of the year to no consideration at all with his early season performance. Personally, I blame the ridiculously ugly porn mustache he is sporting in the picture to the right.

Aaron Bates, 1B / DH / OF, 26. Bates is a little old for a prospect, but more importantly, he's hitting like the new Doug Minky. The problem is that Bates is at Triple A, and not in the majors, and also, Tom Kelly and Tony Muser are no longer managing. He's hitting .238, and while he's got a good eye - his OBP is boosted about a hundred points because of 24 walks - his slugging isn't sufficient for a first baseman, corner outfielder or designated hitter. Last year, it looked like he might be able to fill the Jeff Bailey role this season. Now, if there is an injury at the Major League level, the Sox would probably kick the tires on a trade, or the next guy on this list...

Lars Anderson, 1B / DH, 22. As disappointing as last season was for Anderson, killing any chance of him being in the 1B picture this year for the big club, he has shown glimpses of his prospectdom. He started the year at Portland, but he was moved up quickly to Pawtucket after mashing five homers and hitting .355 with a .408 OBP in 17 games. He hasn't lit the world on fire yet in Pawtucket, but he's had a respectable line of 235 / 337 / 424 in 25 games and 85 AB. He's still just 22, so if the Sox do need a guy to come up for a few days and hit, I think Anderson is the most likely candidate.

Jorge Jimenez, 3B, 25. Well, uh, it's a good thing that Youkilis or Lowell can play third if the Sox have an injury to Beltre. Jimenez is old for a prospect, and he's hitting a paltry .252 with no power at Pawtucket.

Tug Hulett, 2B, 27 and Angel Sanchez, SS / SB, 26. Both guys are strictly "break glass in case of emergency" players, similar to last week, when Sanchez got a cup of coffee because Marco Scutaro was a little dinged up. Hulett has been horrible, despite his nifty name, with a line of 185 / 304 / 331 in 45 games. Sanchez has hit a little bit, sporting a .308 batting average, but just seven of his hits have been for extra bases. He only has one stolen base too, so he's not an asset in the running game either.

Daniel Nava, OF, 27. If the Sox need another OF for some reason - maybe Darnell McDonald gets hurt, or Drew tweaks something bad enough that he has to hit the DL - then Nava has a shot of getting called up. He's hitting OK in the minors, sporting a .293 average and six dingers in 42 games. Nothing special, given his age, but the Sox could take a spin with him as opposed to going after someone outside of the organization.

Dusty Brown, C, 27. He's basically waiting for his chance to get out of the Red Sox organization to a team with an unstable catching situation, and hoping to hook on as a back-up. His line at Triple A isn't bad, but it's nothing you try to accommodate at the Major League level - 268 / 354 / 482. If Varitek goes down, then Brown is a reasonable facsimile of his average offensive production, between last year and this year.

Triple A - Pawtucket - Pitching

Michael Bowden, 23 and Boof Bonser, 28. Ehhh, so much for the Red Sox pitching depth in the minors. Bowden has turned into another Abe Alvarez. On a bad team, he would have been on the fringes of the Major League rotation the past couple years. On the Red Sox, he's been left to linger in AAA, and this year he's been horrid to start the year - 5.83 ERA in 41.2 innings. His 3.13 in 24 starts last year already seems like a distant memory. Bonser has been even worse, with a 8.03 ERA in seven starts. He seems like a prime candidate to be released when the Red Sox need a roster spot.

Adam Mills, 25. If the Sox did need someone to make an emergency start, Mills is probably the guy, assuming they just don't reach down to AA. He has an acceptable 3.84 ERA in 53.2 innings. He has slowly worked his way up the Red Sox system with solid, unspectacular efforts each year. He is strictly a pitch-to-contact guy, with a low strikeout rate, suggesting he isn't much besides filler.

Felix Doubront, 22. He was moved up after dominating Double A to the tune of a 2.51 ERA in 43 innings, with 38 strikeouts. However, stamina appears to be an issue - He averaged about five innings a start in Double A, and he's at three innings per start in Triple A. I'm not sure what the reasoning is, but he's the only genuine starting pitching prospect at Triple A for the Sox right now.

Dustin Richardson, 26 and Robert Manuel, 26. With Joe Nelson already up, these two are next in line for a shot in the pen. Because of their age, neither projects as a superstar. However, Richardson has been dominating Triple A hitters, with 36 K's in 27 innings. He pitched 3.1 scoreless innings for the Red Sox last year, so I imagine he'll be up if they decide to cut bait on Nelson, Ramon Ramirez or someone else. Manuel has a better ERA, but less strikeouts, suggesting his Major League ceiling might be a bit lower.

Double A - Portland - Batting

Jose Iglesias, SS, 20. The book on Iglesias has been that he is a slick fielder, with potential at the plate in the future. He's doing his best to dispel the second portion of that, batting a pretty-decent 306 / 340 / 408 for Portland, which is generally considered a pitcher's park. He doesn't have any dingers, but he has nine doubles and three triples. Although he's young, given the dearth of a real SS prospect at Pawtucket, it wouldn't surprise me to see him promoted at some point this year, with an outside shot at supplementing Scutaro as soon as 2011 if keeps hitting.

Ryan Kalish, LF, 22. He now has to be considered clearly ahead of Kalish in terms of an outfield prospect who could actually fit a spot created by the departing J.D. Drew, Mike Cameron or Ellsbury. I think it's more likely that the Red Sox explore free agency, but Kalish is at least injecting himself into the conversation with his mixture of hitting (.288), power (eight dingers), patience (27 walks) and speed (13 steals). Like Iglesias, he strikes me as a guy who could force his way to the Major League level with a really strong second half.

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, 20. Rizzo was a popular sleeper pick as far as prospects coming into this year because of his power potential. While he does have seven dingers between Single and Double A, his combined average is .254. Given that he plays first base, he needs to start putting up some monstrous lines to be a viable big league option.

Luis Exposito, C, 23. Mentioned as a possible future starter at catcher, Exposito has put up a ho-hum line at Double A of 259 / 337 / 377. This is in line with his A-Ball performance in 2009, and rebuffs a good end of the season in Portland. Right now, his ceiling looks like that of a Major League back-up.

Nate Spears, 2B, 25. He's not really a prospect, since he's 25 and in Double A. However, I have to admit being drawn to him a bit because of 34 freakin' walks. (Mark Bellhorn is one of my favorite Red Sox of all-time, so sue me!) He's only hitting .257, but the walks have pushed his OBP to .404. They probably go away as pitchers challenge him more at higher levels, but they sure be tasty right now. He came over to the Red Sox as a free agent from the Cubs, who apparently tried to beat the selectiveness out of him last year.

Double A - Portland - Pitching

Casey Kelly, 20. Considered the best pitching prospect in the Red Sox's system, his Double A season so far has been inconsistent. He has an OK era of 4.32, with 32 K's in 33 innings, suggesting his stuff is still fine. However, he has to trust that stuff and cut down on the walks - He's allowing one walk per two innings. He's still a great prospect, but the early season talk of him making a late appearance in the bullpen, after allowing one earned run in his first eight innings, seems like lunacy now.

Robert Coello, 25. Definitely a bit old for Double A, but the swing pitcher - he has two starts and 10 relief appearances - has 36 strikeouts in 33.2 innings. His ERA isn't as impressive, just a modest 3.21, but he should probably be bumped up to Pawtucket to see what he can do, given his age.

Got a question on someone I didn't cover? Leave me his name in the comments, and I'll see what I can do.

Monday, December 21, 2009

Johnny effing Damon!

[Left] Unfrozen caveman lawyer, Boston Red Sox traitor and Hall of Very Good player Johnny Damon.

Tonight, the host of Monday Night Raw is New York Yankees free agent outfielder Johnny Damon. I've only seen about 30 minutes of the show, but his acting is as weak as his arm - Very muted and lowkey, with little chance of gunning someone down at the plate or coming across as a strong presence on the microphone. (See what I did there, mixing the two comparisons? Impressive, I know.)

Anywho, Damon's presence on the show reminded me that he is still a free agent, since he (most-likely) overplayed his hand with the Yankees this offseason. I initially heard that he wanted a contract in the two to four-year range, at more than $10 million per year, which struck me as absolutely insane.

At that dollar value, Damon is only good if he can play center field, which he can't anymore at age 36. I'd rather take a flier on someone like Vlad Guerrero or Nick Johnson, the second of which the Yankees are apparently doing. (By the way, this annoys me as a Red Sox fan - I was hoping the Red Sox would sign Johnson as their first baseman, and to keep Kotchman as a decent backup who might regain some of his value with a full year in Boston.)

That being said, I am surprised how well Damon is performing and holding up physically. The general rule is that speed guys like Damon, Rickey Henderson, Devon White, Marquis Grissom and others preserve better than others. However, Damon's iffy middle seasons - his only year in Oakland and 2003 in Boston - made me question whether he was following this career path or not, especially since he last played center field everyday in 2006.

Regardless, the Red Sox have Ellsbury (and now Cameron and formerly Coco Crisp), so it was justifiable for them to let Damon walk. While Ellsbury doesn't have as much power as Damon, I view him as a league average center fielder at a rock bottom price. He hasn't developed as much as I would like, excluding the stolen bases, but it is still worth employing him in order to save the money to sign some other players, like John Lackey.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Lowell trade gives Red Sox even more flexibility

So, Ken Rosenthal is reporting on his Twitter that the Red Sox have dealt Mike Lowell to the Rangers for hot minor league catching prospect Max Ramirez. The Sox would also pay almost all of Lowell's salary. For the source, check out his Twitter feed for now, and I imagine ESPN of the like will have the full trade details out soon, since they still have the 11 p.m. PST Sportscenter to produce.

My off the cuff reaction is that this seems like a much bigger move on the surface than it is. Lowell has been a well-liked, productive player in Boston when healthy. However, this past season his range was clearly diminished in the field, and I didn't think he would survive through the off-season on the team. I think this coming year for Lowell plays out like Jason Varitek's 2008, with his bat eroding to the point that it can't carry his iffy fielding.

I'm surprised the return is Ramirez, though. The Rangers seemingly valued him high, and as much as Lowell can still hit, I'm surprised his defensive shortcomings meant the Rangers would give up Ramirez. A year ago, he was thought to be the better prospect of Taylor Teagarden and Jared Saltahcflsjfhasl.

The hype comes from Ramirez mashing the ball at AA in 2008 - slash stats of 354 / 450 / 646 in 243 at-bats. He also had really good years in 2006 and 2007 at A and high-A respectively.

However, something happened to him this year. In 274 AAA at-bats, his slash stats were 234 / 323 / 336. According to this Fanhouse blog, Ramirez was battling wrist injuries all year, which almost always causes horrible damage to batting numbers. The Red Sox seem to be trading when Ramirez is at a reasonable midpoint in value: He could recover completely and mash, or he could collapse completely, a la the struggles Jed Lowrie and David Ortiz have had recovering from wrist surgeries.

I still like this trade for the Red Sox though, because they turned a declining, good asset (Lowell) into one at a premium position that could be an All-Star regular. It also gives them more flexible to fill holes, as odd as that seems. With Lowell gone, they can sign Beltre to play some decent defense at third, or pursue a trade for a big bat at first base (Miguel Cabrera? Adam Dunn?) and switch Kevin Youkilis over to third. And, my favorite part of the trade is that the Sox didn't have to move any of their valuable young prospects - Casey Kelly, Ryan Westmoreland, Clay Buchholz - in order to acquire Ramirez.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Yankees trade bad for the Red Sox

Since I was typing yesterday from the catacombs of the Civic Center, it only seems appropriate that I do this entry today in the 20 minutes before Rhode Island's game tonight. I'm busy eating some macaroni and cheese as I type this though, preparing for the game, so again, please excuse me if my thoughts are disheveled somewhat.

Anywho. The big news of the day in sports was the Yankees trade for Curtis Granderson, which, as a Red Sox fan, made me groan. Granderson isn't still projected to be a mega-superstar, like he was as a minor league prospect coming up, but he is a serviceable center fielder.

This would be an improvement on what the Yankees were probably planning to parade out there this year, some combination of Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardiner and maybe Austin Jackson. According to ESPN, the Yankees would give up Ian Kennedy, Phil Coke and Jackson.

Of those players, only Jackson has real potential as a plus-contributor on a playoff team. After his repeated shellings in the rotation the past few years, I'm shocked Kennedy still has value to another team. At best, I think he's a fourth or fifth starter, which is normally something you promote from within or sign on the cheap on the free agent market. Coke is a nice arm for the pen, and Jackson might grow up to be Granderson, so I'm surprised the Yankees had to give up so little to end up with Granderson in this trade.

I have no idea why the Diamondbacks did this trade. They ended up with Kennedy and Tigers' starter Edwin Jackson, who regressed badly after a hot start, and gave up the past prospects, who the Tigers picked up in the deal.

Granderson photo taken from this blog.

Friday, December 4, 2009

In defense of Scutaro's defense

Your newest Boston Red Sox - Marco Scutaro

So earlier today, the Red Sox announced that they signed shortstop Marco Scutaro, most recently of the Toronto Blue Jays and formerly of the Oakland Athletics and New York Mets, to a two-year, $11 million contract, with an option for the third year. While the response was mixed on Boston's chief sports radio station, WEEI, I'm generally in favor of the signing for a couple reason.

- The years and money are surprisingly low to me. If Chone Figgins is (rumored to be) getting four years and $32 million, then the Red Sox are making out like bandits if they only have to guaranteed two years to Scutaro. Yeah, he's a little bit older, but he also plays an up-the-middle position that is hard to fill.

I view Scutaro's most recent season as a bit of a fluke, and out of line with his past production. However, it's only about 20 points of batting average and 20 to 30 points of on-base, which lead to a bit of an uptick in his slugging. His numbers this year - 282 / 379 / 409 - are not ridiculously out of line with his career numbers - 265 / 337 / 384. And if he does crap the bed, the financial investment in him is small enough that it won't kill the Red Sox to dump him in a trade or flat-out release him, a la Julio Lugo.

- The comparison that was rampant on sports radio this afternoon was Scutaro vs. Alex Gonzalez. The fact that this comparison was even coming up shows that statisticians still have plenty of work to do with sample size and defense.

I don't know why, but there is a lingering assertion that Gonzalez is a better defender than Scutaro. Maybe it's because he played for the Red Sox, and made some slick plays here and there. However, his career rate (click here for a definition) at shortstop is 97, three runs below average. His only above-average years were not in Red Sox uniforms. He has committed 155 errors at shortstop in 1,206 games, an average of about one per 7.7 games.

Scutaro has a smaller sample size at short vs. Gonzalez, but bests him in these defensive categories. He has 40 errors in 415 games, an average of one per 10.4 games. His career rate at shortstop is 107, seven runs ABOVE average, and 10 runs better than Gonzalez's career. In 2009, Scutaro's rate was 108, while Gonzalez was 98 in Cincy and 93 in Boston. Gonzalez missed all of 2008 after having surgery to repair a fractured knee; this might have affected his play permanently.

Hopefully this thwarts some of the "Gonzalez is a better fielder!!!" crap floating around out there. And when it comes to offense, Scutaro is the clearly better player, since A-Gonz is so horrible. His career line at the plate is 247 / 294 / 395; his only asset is a bit of pop.

- With all of that being said, I'm not under any illusion that this "fixes" the Red Sox problem at shortstop. Scutaro finished sixth in VORP (click here for an explanation), but his total of 39.9 was clearly below the superstar levels of Hanley Ramirez (79.9) and Derek Jeter (72.8), and closer to the "average" shortstop level of Rafael Furcal (18.6), Brendan Ryan (17.7) and Ryan Theriot (17.4).

Unless he suddenly goes in the tank, Scutaro should be a good solution at shortstop for the next two years, and he'll give the Red Sox time to evaluate whether Jed Lowrie can be the answer in the future, and provides a good defensive option for third base and second base if Mike Lowell or Dustin Pedroia are out for a stretch of time.

The Scutaro photo is from this nifty blog; I used it mostly because it was a "wide" photo, which is better for displaying on these posts.

Monday, August 10, 2009

Bag of baseballs > .265 average

The Red Sox parade of mediocrity from my youth: Jack Clark,
Jose Offerman, Tom Brunansky and Troy O'Leary.


I realize that a lot of people reading my blog are sports fans, because I mostly follow sports bloggers, writers and columnists on Twitter, yet I haven't written any posts on sports lately. From reading my last 10 entries or so, you'd think I was obsessed with television commercials, 1990s movies and providing flip remarks to music that randomly appears on my iTunes playlist. (For the record, you wouldn't be wrong if you assumed “yes” to any of the three.)

Therefore, let me debate an issue that comes up around the trade deadline every year – The idea that some teams are “giving up” by trading veteran players. It is almost always hogwash, and a claim made by lazy sportswriters, radio show hosts and the general public.

The outcry seemed most intense this year toward Pittsburgh Pirates GM Neil Huntington. For some reason, the maddening crowds (thanks Thomas Hardy!) screamed that he should have kept Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson, even though both have, you know, been on the team for the half-dozen or so years it has really sucked. Without Sanchez and Wilson, you might go 70-92 instead of 65-97, and even this might be an overstatement.

The perception of them as above-average players seems to exist solely because of counting stats – i.e. at-bat dependent stats like home runs, RBI and hits.

Freddy Sanchez's combined line between Pittsburgh and San Fran is .299, but his OBP is only .338, and he doesn't hit for enough power or play a great 2B, SS or 3B. At "just" $4 million, I suppose he's priced-appropriately for his price tag, except that you can find some minor league guys to play as well as he does, and pool the savings at that position and somewhere else to get a marquee player.

Jack Wilson's line is even more hack-tastic, as his OBP doesn't break .300. Even if he is a SS, that's unacceptable. He can defend really well, but he's not Ozzie Smith, which he has to be to justify his sub-par production at the plate and $6.65 million salary.

Getting anything for them, even if it's just salary relief, is better than holding on to them and seeing what little value they have crater when they finally do put up a .200 average.

To dip into baseball history a bit here, I've always been a fan of the Branch Rickey philosophy of dealing a player a year too early as opposed to a year too late. For example, even though this is sacrilegious for a Red Sox fan to say, I would have loved to see them trade David Ortiz to a stupid GM after his big year in 2007. Since he was a big, fat 1B / DH, like Mo Vaughn and Boog Powell and Mark McGwire and Travis Hafner and Cecil Fielder, there was a really good chance that his production was going to crater, which it has so far this year. Therefore, if I wouldn't have a problem with the Red Sox dealing Ortiz, I feel even less remorse for the idea of the Pirates dealing (overvalued) veterans for any sort of prospects with a pulse.

Of course, the Red Sox want to hold on to Ortiz for reasons other than his ability to hit a baseball. While they wouldn't have to worry about attendance falling off without him there, I'm sure the merchandise sales on a guy like Ortiz are in the millions of dollars, so there is an ancillary benefit that can't really be replaced, sort of somehow managing to trade Ortiz for Albert Pujols. For example, Ortiz straight-up for Adrian Gonzalez would have been a win on the field for the Red Sox, but I imagine it would actually hurt revenue.

As is, the Red Sox have probably maximized their “on-field performance” revenue – They've won consistently for the past six years, with playoff appearances in five and two World Series championships, and they recently set the record for straight home sell-outs. Because they have capped their performance-based revenue, it does make sense that they use their large financial cushion to hold on to fan favorites (Ortiz, Lowell, Manny Ramirez and his drama as long as they did) in order to maximize non-performance revenue.

However, I think this only applies to perennial contenders who can rely on strong gates despite week-to-week and month-to-month dips in team quality – Red Sox, Yankees, maybe the Mets, Angels and Dodgers. If you are a small to mid-market team, and your attendance and revenue is going to more strongly tied to this current season's record, then you want to do your best to maximize your record, or failing that, to maximize future records (trade veterans for prospects).

LinkWithin

Related Posts with Thumbnails