Thursday, December 10, 2009

Lowell trade gives Red Sox even more flexibility

So, Ken Rosenthal is reporting on his Twitter that the Red Sox have dealt Mike Lowell to the Rangers for hot minor league catching prospect Max Ramirez. The Sox would also pay almost all of Lowell's salary. For the source, check out his Twitter feed for now, and I imagine ESPN of the like will have the full trade details out soon, since they still have the 11 p.m. PST Sportscenter to produce.

My off the cuff reaction is that this seems like a much bigger move on the surface than it is. Lowell has been a well-liked, productive player in Boston when healthy. However, this past season his range was clearly diminished in the field, and I didn't think he would survive through the off-season on the team. I think this coming year for Lowell plays out like Jason Varitek's 2008, with his bat eroding to the point that it can't carry his iffy fielding.

I'm surprised the return is Ramirez, though. The Rangers seemingly valued him high, and as much as Lowell can still hit, I'm surprised his defensive shortcomings meant the Rangers would give up Ramirez. A year ago, he was thought to be the better prospect of Taylor Teagarden and Jared Saltahcflsjfhasl.

The hype comes from Ramirez mashing the ball at AA in 2008 - slash stats of 354 / 450 / 646 in 243 at-bats. He also had really good years in 2006 and 2007 at A and high-A respectively.

However, something happened to him this year. In 274 AAA at-bats, his slash stats were 234 / 323 / 336. According to this Fanhouse blog, Ramirez was battling wrist injuries all year, which almost always causes horrible damage to batting numbers. The Red Sox seem to be trading when Ramirez is at a reasonable midpoint in value: He could recover completely and mash, or he could collapse completely, a la the struggles Jed Lowrie and David Ortiz have had recovering from wrist surgeries.

I still like this trade for the Red Sox though, because they turned a declining, good asset (Lowell) into one at a premium position that could be an All-Star regular. It also gives them more flexible to fill holes, as odd as that seems. With Lowell gone, they can sign Beltre to play some decent defense at third, or pursue a trade for a big bat at first base (Miguel Cabrera? Adam Dunn?) and switch Kevin Youkilis over to third. And, my favorite part of the trade is that the Sox didn't have to move any of their valuable young prospects - Casey Kelly, Ryan Westmoreland, Clay Buchholz - in order to acquire Ramirez.

4 comments:

  1. What the blood clot are the Rangers thinking? And, yes, I think Adrian Beltre will be manning the hot corner in Boston. I'm sure he'll get along great with the short porch. I hate the AL East.

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  2. I didn't really look at the trade from the Rangers perspective, just because I'm not really familiar with their roster in the slightest. But yeah, I have no clue what their motivation is. Why not just sign Beltre? I imagine there could be some financial motivation here - The Sox are picking up almost the entire tab on Lowell's contract, meaning the Rangers essentially trade a minimum contract prospect for a minimum contract third baseman, and don't add much to their bottom line.

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  3. Apparently the Rangers are going to sign Harden, and trade Millwood. They're busy.

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  4. Meh, I'm not crazy about that idea. Why not sign Harden and keep Millwood? It's not like the Rangers have an incredible rotation, so they might as well stockpile subpar options as opposed to relying on Rich "Glass Joe" Harden. Is their backup plan to sign Mark Prior to a minor league contract?

    ReplyDelete

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