Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Reviewing my fantasy baseball draft, part two.

Enjoy this random picture of curling.

For part one of this post, which includes the scoring rules and format of this league, check out my post from yesterday. If you have any other questions about the league and format, feel free to ask in a comment. And, I'll be back to the LOST and television analysis later tonight.

KEEPERS:

Pedroia_Dustin/BOS
Longoria_Evan/TBA
Kemp_Matthew/LAN
Avila_Alex/DET
Tillman_Chris/BAL
Holland_Derek/TEX
Hamels_Cole/PHI
Rowland-Smith_Ryan/SEA
Hughes_Philip/NYA
Santana_Carlos/CLE

Reviewing my keepers, I make up for a lack of top shelf quality with quantity. Longoria and Pedroia were easy keep decisions, since they play at premium positions and in good lineups; perennial All-Stars. Kemp might be a tougher decision in future years, for reasons I'll get into. Aliva cost almost nothing to keep and he's a decent hitting catcher, and I like his chances of forcing Laird to the bench in Detroit. Tillman and Holland are too cheap and still have too much potential to give up on. Same with Hamels. Rowland-Smith and Hughes I view as generic innings-munchers, but since I had the extra years, I thought that I might as well keep them and use my draft picks on others. And Carlos Santana will hopefully be with the Indians at some point this year, instead of playing music.

In terms of overall draft strategy, well, I didn't have any concrete plans or targets. My lone goal was to avoid drafting an OF and 1B as long as possible. I didn't do this last year, and I remember being annoyed at how long decent OFers lasted, even late into the draft. In contrast, I disliked having to constantly juggle my injured pitching staff last year. Therefore, a secondary goal was picking up some durable starters, with the hope of some of my upside guys - Hughes, Tillman, Holland, prospects - coming up and taking their innings at some point.

1 4 SteveG Beckett_Josh/BOS

I viewed Beckett as a better choice than some others, like Cliff Lee, because of his superior team. Given the choice between a pitcher on a winning team and a losing team, I'll take the winning team, since there is a chance for some vulture wins when you don't have your best stuff. I had Beckett, Lee, Chris Carpenter and Vasquez all rated about equally. Carpenter scares me because of his long, long dossier of past injuries, and Vasquez scares me because he flopped in his last trip in NY.

2 20 SteveG Napoli_Mike/LAA

I wasn't crazy about this pick, since the Angels hate his defense and willingly employ Mathis in some sort of time split, keeping Napoli's overall numbers down. I had him last year too though, and it was normally more good than bad. Plus, with Aliva on the bench, I think I'm covered when it comes to Napoli's days off, although I will have to scrounge the waiver wire if there is an injury/

3 36 SteveG Cabrera_Asdrubal/CLE

Since I had already taken care of catcher, which has spotty offensive options, I decided to fill another hole in my lineup and grab Cabrera.

4 52 SteveG Chapman_Aroldis/CIN

Last year, Strasberg went in the third round. While he was viewed as more of a "can't miss" than Chapman, Chapman is closer to the majors at this point in their careers, and he showed some electric stuff in spring training. I considered him the best draftable prospect pitcher with a chance at being a No. 1 starter, and if he does hit that peak, he would be cheap for years and years.

5 68 SteveG Duchscherer_Justin/OAK

Injury-concerns, yeah, but a solid starting pitcher. I think I wanted to take him last year, but the other Steve took him one pick before me, forcing me to take Troy Glaus instead. That didn't work out so well. He's like a poor man's Carpenter, in that he seems to get injured quite a bit, but if he's healthy, he's great.

5 78 SteveG Cuddyer_Michael/MIN

While I think last year might have been his peak in terms of offense, all I had left to fill on my roster was my bullpen, 1B and two OF spots. So, I took him, since he was eligible at 1B and OF. And hey, maybe they'll play him at 2B again this year! (Well, probably not.)

6 84 SteveG Drew_JD/BOS

I really, really like Red Sox players this year. I think the team has a chance to win 100+ games, since their lineup will just wear pitchers down. Drew will only play 120 games, but he normally just misses a game here or there, as opposed to long stretches of time. Therefore, I think he'll still get plenty of counting stats.

8 116 SteveG Coghlan_Chris/FLO

This is why I held off as long as possible on outfielders. If he does have another really good year, or improves somehow or moves back to 2B, then he is definitely worth three keeper years. I almost took him in the sixth with my pick, and I was surprised that he lasted this long. People hadn't started to make a run on prospects yet, and I wasn't really attached to any of the available ones, so I decided to focus on filling out my roster.

8 122 SteveG Wagner_Billy/ATL

Best closer on the board. I have no idea if his arm will hold up, but I needed some relief pitchers, and I wasn't crazy about taking my chances on whoever ended up with saves in Minnesota, for example.

9 132 SteveG Hoffman_Trevor/MIL

See above reasoning.

10 148 SteveG Ordonez_Magglio/DET

I was surprised he was still around. People realize Mike Illitch has to pay his contract, right, and not us? I viewed him as a better proposition than Soriano or Vlad Guerrero, similar hobbled sluggers, and Ordonez does have OF eligibility still.

11 164 SteveG Marmol_Carlos/CHN

Third relief pitcher. He's been shaky in the spring, and shaky in general, but hey, not much left in terms of elite closers at this point.

12 180 SteveG Kelly_Casey/BOS

Time to go prospecting! Every scouting report on Kelly raves about how polished he is, and while he might not have the true "ace" stuff, most don't see him as a bust either, and he has an outside shot of getting up to Boston at some point in the year. Since the REALLY elite prospects like Stanton and Strasberg are long gone, I liked Kelly's upside.

13 196 SteveG Wakefield_Tim/BOS

Depending on how I shape my rotation and swing staff, he could be a really valuable piece. At the least, I know he'll make 15 to 25 starts, a good portion of which will be quality. And because he plays for the Red Sox, he should pick up a decent amount of wins, assuming he isn't eventually bumped out of the rotation by Dice-K.

14 212 SteveG Byrd_Marlon/CHN

Ugh. I have little faith he can repeat last year's numbers, but I hate the speed and SB guys like Juan Pierre that we left on the board. Therefore, I rolled the dice with Byrd. At the very least, Byrd will get a LOT of at-bats, since the Cubs gave him a crap ton of money.

15 228 SteveG Blackburn_Nick/MIN

See above about Byrd, but instead, I'm talking about Blackburn. Like every other Twins' pitcher, I think he puts up an ERA in the 4s and wins (and loses) a 8 to 12 games. For a swing pitcher, that sounds pretty good.

16 244 SteveG Eveland_Dana/TOR

Now stockpiling starting pitching.

17 260 SteveG Encarnacion_Edwin/TOR

At this point, Tom took over for me, drafting with a list. I told him to take the highest rated, in this order, which made for some hilarious results: 1b/3b, ss/2b, OF, RP, and then all prospects. I like Edwin's upside, assuming Cito Gaston doesn't screw it up by playing some hack.

18 276 SteveG Betancourt_Yuniesky/KCA

He already hit a home run, I'm a genius!!! Ack, I didn't even realize he was ranked this high on the list I left, which REALLY skewed toward players with starting jobs and high AB totals. Because the Royals are the Royals, I don't doubt that Betancourt will get 600 ABs, and while his rate stats completely suck, there is always the chance that he has a couple good weeks here and there... Right? Right guys?

19 292 SteveG Raburn_Ryan/DET

Back-up outfielder, with an outside shot of qualifying at an IF spot or catcher if there is a severe emergency in Detroit.

20 308 SteveG Clippard_Tyler/WAS

Decent numbers, and I need a few more arms.

21 324 SteveG Friedrich_Christian/COL
22 340 SteveG Norris_Derrek/WAS
23 356 SteveG Brignac_Reid/TBA
24 370 SteveG Matzek_Tyler/COL

For my prospect list, I did absolutely no work - The list I gave Tom was BP's Top 101 list, in order, with the players already chosen taken off of it. Sorry Michael :(

2 comments:

  1. Alright, I can figure out what's going on more readily now. I've never done a keeper format myself. I think Cliff Lee is the vastly superior pitcher to Beckett, but the whole his missing the first part of the season thing is problematic when you're basically looking for your ace (Hamels is a #3 fantasy starter at this point until his ERA goes below 4). I like Carpenter though. Vazquez, no, I don't, he's a glorified Livan Hernandez at this point. Blackburn, Baker, and Pavano are the Twins starters I'm less sold on for fantasy purposes - in this format, I think I would have jumped all over Slowey. I'm in four leagues this year, so I apologize for being a little rambly with my comments, I'm just definitely in that mode.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yeah, I was worried about Lee's health, and although he plays in Safeco now, it's not like he has been gangbusters for years. Taking that into consideration, with Beckett being on my hometown team, and I skewed more toward him.

    I appreciate the comments!

    ReplyDelete

Try not to be too much of an ass, unless completely necessary. You are subject to tyrannical moderation.

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