Pickin' Pigskin with Bob and Steve: Week 9

The following picks may or may not be good. Chances are, if you are looking at one of Bob’s picks, it is a good one, since he leads this whole pool business. If you agree with my reasoning, well, be aware. Kristin’s picks will be up tomorrow at 11 a.m.

JACKSONVILLE over Kansas City (6.5)

Bob: Jacksonville -6.5

I would say that I’m going to make a New Years resolution to be better about getting these picks done on time, but by then it’s kind of a moot point, eh? Actually, this is kind of the way life goes. I started by getting the first half of the picks to you by Tuesday, then Wednesday, and now Thursday. It’s just like getting up for work—you start by getting up around 6 or so in the morning, but as you realize you can still get things done that time starts slipping.

Oh wait, we have to talk about yet another terrible football game? Actually, I imagine the above metaphor applies for playing for a crappy team as well. When you have the whole season ahead of you, you play your heart out and hope you can do something great. But as the season wears on, and you realize your team is going absolutely nowhere, it gets harder and harder to play to the best of your abilities. Of course, if I’m comparing myself to Larry Johnson, does that mean I get to write slurs on Twitter now? (Too soon?)

Quick analysis: Jacksonville can’t beat quality teams but seems to do well against bad teams (except for the travesty that occurred last week against the Titans). KC has a terrible run defense, so Miller Jones Draft will probably run all over them.

Steve: Jags -6.5

I’m calling this one my stone cold Subway fresh Duralast lock of the week. Why is that? Because I cut David Garrard from my fantasy team. For this sole reason, it means he will blow up and throw about two dozen touchdown passes, and probably run for a couple as well. Also, he might deliver a baby, then take the snap, and throw the baby to the doctor in the stands, and a touchdown to a receiver, one toss from each hand.

Also, the Jags have gotten blown out by the Titans and the Seahawks, so I don’t think it’s a matter of them being able to beat bad teams. They seem to play OK against quality teams, but shit the bed against iffy teams. I have no idea why this is the case, but in reflection, Garrard hasn’t ever really won a big game for them, despite some decent talent on his team.

Baltimore over CINCINATTI (3)

Steve: Cincy +3

Cincy is at home and dogs? Mmm, tastes yummy to me! By the way, have I mentioned how much I now love Ocho Cinco?

Bob: Baltimore -3

I would not like to be playing Baltimore after the drubbing they laid on the Broncos last week. Combine that with the fact that the two teams are very similar in terms of their running games and run defense, but Baltimore is superior both throwing and defending the pass, and I think we might see Baltimore win this one pretty convincingly. I think the Bengals have played better than they had any business playing over the first half of the year, and this may be the point where we see them come screaming back to earth.

INDIANAPOLIS over Houston (9)

Bob: Houston +9

People seem to feel good about the Texans this week and I’m not going to stand in their way. I think these teams match up pretty well, and if San Fran could play with the big boys last week then I think Houston has a chance, too. These two teams are very similar, statistically, with Indy having a slight edge. At the very least, I think this team can cover. Since I’m betting against them, of course, this means that Peyton Manning will blow up for five touchdowns.

Steve: Indy -9

Okay, Manning let me down last week, or the real San Fran 49ers decided to grace us with their presence – I’m not entirely sure. However, this seems like a pretty manageable line for the Colts. All they need to win by is a touchdown and a field goal, which seems quite within reach for the Indy Mannings.

By the way, does Peyton Manning have a nickname? I feel like he has to have one, yet he’s always just Peyton Manning. Nicknames in general seem to be less prevalent in the National Football League, excluding the aforementioned Ocho Cinco.

ATLANTA over Washington (10)

Steve: Atlanta -10

I don’t view the Redskins as a threat to score, so I’d be basing this pick solely on the Falcons ability to score 11 or more points than them. By that standard, I think Michael Turner will be able to do it, even if Matty Ryan has been obsessed with throwing interceptions lately. I understand he is a product of Boston College, but I live in Rhode Island and don’t give a shit about college football anyway.

Bob: Washington +10

I could not possibly feel worse about this pick. Living in the DC area, I know exactly how bad the Redskins are. The short story is that they are really, really bad. It would be one thing if they were bad like St. Louis, Cleveland, or Tampa Bay, in the sense that those teams look downright pathetic week-to-week. But somehow Washington’s defense is the No.4 in the league in terms of average yardage and still cannot win against even mediocre teams. This is a direct result of the fact that their offense is pathetic, even though in terms of average yardage it’s middling. For whatever reason they just can’t punch the ball in the endzone. In a sense, the Redskins are like that friend that most people have had at some point in their lives—a guy who is always surrounded by pretty girls, but for whatever reason cannot seal the deal. If the Redskins were your friend, it would be time to start taking bets on when he comes out of the closet.

There are a couple of reasons I think Washington can stay within 10 this week. First, Washington’s defense has been stifling against the pass, putting up similar numbers to the Giants or Jets defense. So Matt Ryan likely is not going to have a good game this week. Second, Washington has been keeping it close all year. So far they have lost by 6, 5, 3, 12, and 10 (with two of those losses coming against the Giants and Eagles), and won by 2 and 3. So never take the Redskins to cover when they are favored, but it’s a decent bet that they can cover a double-digit spread when they are the underdogs.

Green Bay over TAMPA BAY (9.5)

Bob: Green Bay -9.5

What is Green Bay’s dysfunction? This is a team that should be good, but yet can’t seem to stand their own ground against any kind of quality opponent. I’d say that Green Bay has reverse Eagles syndrome (where they only play to the level of their opponents), but that doesn’t seem to quite describe it. Green Bay looks great statistically, but for whatever reason it hasn’t translated to wins for them. It’s somewhat more similar to what the Chargers have historically done—been talented and impressive statistically, but for whatever reason can’t win when it counts.

That being said, I don’t see how the Bucs even keep this one close. Tampa has earned its place in the bottom tier of the NFL and Green Bay hasn’t seemed to have problems dispatching subpar opponents. Honestly, it looks like Tampa might have a good chance of replication last year’s 0-16 record by the Lions. The three chances they seem like they’ll have—without shocking anybody—is against Carolina Week 13, against the Seahawks Week 15, or against a resting Saints team in Week 16. Tampa Bay looks dedicated to taking back the winless season mantle it once had.

Steve: Green Bay -9.5

I agree with you that Tampa Bay has been utterly putrid. They smell like a diaper full of Indian food, or like Bigfoot’s dick. At the beginning of the season, I thought they might be able to surprise some teams and end up with a 6-10 record, but their coach – some guy with a funny name that I refuse to look up right now – just seems to be in completely over his head.

Green Bay’s problem has been their offensive line. They can’t handle teams with a great pass rush, like the Vikings, who have beaten them twice this year. Rodgers is a quality quarterback, and I’d argue that he’s better than Favre right now, but his line is miserable. Some people complain that he holds on to the ball for too long... and they’re fags. (In the South Park sense of the word.)

CHICAGO over Arizona (3)

Steve: Arizona +3

It seems odd that the Bears are favored in this game. I’m guessing it’s because they are at home, against the Cardinals, who typically shit the bed against cold-weather teams in cold-weather locations.

Bob: Chicago -3

I don’t know why I keep picking da Bears. I watched that game against Cleveland last week, and even though da Bears won by more than 20 points it just did not feel like it. Cleveland was always hanging around but da Bears got lucky in the fact that the Browns always managed to screw up somehow. (By the way, when your team goes out on the field and cannot execute week-to-week, the answer is always to fire your general manager. The Browns inability to do anything good on the field is clearly a personnel decision problem, not an inept coach problem. I don’t know how Mangina has managed to fool people into thinking he’s a good coach, because he is definitely not. Somehow, Mangina has made Romeo Crennel look competent.)

I’m picking Chicago this week because I think Arizona might have looked better than they actually are by beating a Giants team that wasn’t as good as we thought. Otherwise, their wins have come against Jacksonville, the always inconsistent Houston, and the awful Seahawks. Arizona has far and away the worst running game in the NFL, which is da Bears’ defense’s comparative weakness. Combined with the fact that Arizona is mediocre against the pass, I think Diabetes Cutler could have a good week.

NEW ENGLAND over Miami (10.5)

Bob: Pats -10.5

The Dolphins have shown an impressive ability to hang with the big boys, but the statistics don’t back it up. The team’s offense is just ahead of the Redskins in average yardage due to an awful passing game—on the level of the Chiefs or the Bills—and its defense is middling, ranked between the Texans and the Cardinals. The Patriots will probably have some problems containing the Wildcat, but Miami’s pass defense is actually worse than the Bucs who Tom Brady managed to light up in London. This game could be high scoring but gamblers are lucky the line has been pushed down some by Miami’s impressive showings so far and the problems the Dolphins cause for the Patriots last year.

Steve: Dolphins +10.5

Here is the thing – I don’t think there is a chance that the Dolphins will win this game. However, I don’t think the Patriots linebackers are a strong part of the team, which plays into the strength of the Dolphins, power running. This seems like as good a game as any for Ronnie Brown to break out of his slump, even if Tom Brady throws for six touchdowns in the process. (Can you tell who I’m starting this week in fantasy?)

NEW ORLEANS over Carolina (13)

Steve: New Orleans -13

I’m picking against the Panthers in spite. Eff you, Delhomme. You’re just jealous that you were on my fantasy team roster for a grand total of a single day, and you wanted to show up Garrard last week. Well, he’s gone now, so you’ll go back to your usual pick-throwing self.

Bob: New Orleans -13

The luster has been coming off the Saints during the last few weeks. They have won both games convincingly in the end, but Miami and Atlanta both came closer to knocking them off than the scores indicate. As a Patriots fan, I am afraid they have the chance to go 16-0 and that scares me. So I’d like to see them lose a game, and it heartens me that teams seem to be figuring them out. I think one of these weeks someone is going to knock them off, and it is now dangerous to bet on them because eventually they can’t keep covering these double-digit spreads.

Oh, wait, but they’re playing Jake Delhomme and the Carolina Panthers? Although you never know what you’re getting from Carolina week-to-week, there is no way I’m betting on them in New Orleans. Carolina has the No. 1 pass defense in the league so it’s possible they could shut down Drew Brees. But it is somewhat overlooked that New Orleans runs just as well as they pass, so I don’t see the Panthers’ angle in this game.

SEATTLE over Detroit (10)

Bob: Detroit +10

Another battle of the bads. As bad as Detroit has historically been, how is it that Seattle has a double digit lead in the spread? These two teams aren’t that far apart and the Lions seem to be getting healthier. Meanwhile, Seattle almost had a return to the Seneca Wallace era last week and T.J. Houshasdfl;kjsdaf looked seriously upset midway through the game. That Seahawks team looks like it’s going to fall apart soon. I wouldn’t exactly be stunned to see more than a cover in this game.

Steve: Seattle -10

I’ve tried picking the Lions in multiple weeks, and they always seem to disappoint me. The experience just never is satisfying. I’m breaking that vicious cycle right here. Additionally, this could be the first time I’ve picked the Seahawks this year. Matt Hasselbeck is also my backup fantasy quarterback now, so I think he’ll be OK in this game, even if we are always a blown block away from the Seneca Wallace era.

SAN FRANCISCO over Tennessee (4)

Steve: San Fran -4

Didn’t the 49ers just play the Colts really tight last week? So why are they only favored by four against the Titans? The Titans finally got off the schnide, as a fat sportscaster might say, and I suppose people are enthused about the Vince Young era. Although I advocated for this move at the beginning of the year, I don’t think they’ve really given it enough time to gel. Mike Singletary will have time to study Vince Young and destroy his confidence and game.

Bob: San Francisco -4

No reason to be afraid of Chris Johnson this week, San Francisco knows how to shut down the run. As you mentioned, this line is somewhat inconceivable. Tennessee’s offense is somewhat better than the 49ers, purely thanks to their running game, but the Titans defense is just anemic. I know that Vince Young was one of those guys who “just wins” a few years ago, but I think the luster has worn off him. The fact that it took the Titans so long to turn to him is a big vote of confidence in anybody but Vince Young.

NY GIANTS over San Diego (5)

Bob: NY Giants -5

Two quality teams that can’t seem to beat quality opponents playing against each other. With any luck, the two teams playing each other won’t result in what Doc Brown thought could happen if the two Jennifers encountered each other in Back to the Future Part II or if they crossed the streams in Ghostbusters. Honestly, the Giants can’t be as bad as they’ve looked in the last few weeks, right? What are the chances that San Diego can actually pull off a win against a good team?

Honestly, if I were a serious gambler I think I would stay away from most of the games this week. A lot of these matchups are scary because both teams are just so inconsistent. Either you get the Lions and the Seahawks in a crapfest, or you get the Giants and the Chargers in a game that will be close not because both teams are good but instead because neither team does anything particularly well. This has been a bad NFL season.

Steve: Giants -5

I totally agree with you. I feel like the Giants or the Chargers will play out of their freakin’ minds, and I don’t really have a good feel for which team it’ll be. I do think that Mini-Manning (or half Manning, whichever name you prefer) is more hurt than the Giants are letting on. But because the Giants are at home, I’m going to skew toward them this week.

PHILADELPHIA over Dallas (3)

Steve: Philly -3

This game looks like it should be awesome on paper, which makes me think that the Eagles will win by about 50 points. I mean, we thought last week’s game would be close, and the Eagles blew the Giants out. (Was that even last week? I can’t remember. More than any other season in recent memory, all of these games and weeks are blurring together to me. I’m not sure if this is a symptom of us picking games, or if the games really are that blahhhh this year.) Likewise, this looks like a close game that either team could win, so I imagine the real Donovan McNabb will show up.

Bob: Eagles -3

I liked it better when week-to-week in the NFL you knew what you were getting out of certain teams. I’m talking about 2004-2005 when you knew the Pats were going to keep a game close, but generally win. You knew Peyton Manning and LDT were going to have monster games. You knew Baltimore’s defense was going to be stifling. Parity seemed like more of a reality, because even though you knew teams were going to be good there were ways to beat them. There was no chance a team was going to go 16-0, but you would have a couple of 14-2, 13-3 teams. The NFL seemed so simple back then.

Now we have a serious separation of haves and have-nots. Some of the names are the same — the Patriots, Colts, and Steelers are still going to win a bunch of games between them. But now you have New Orleans in the mix as a possible unbeaten team — take a look at their schedule an tell me it’s unpossible — and Denver is playing out of their mind. On the other end, you have Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Oakland, who generally shock people if they manage to win a single game. What’s worse is that in the middle, teams are not just mediocre. No, instead you have this weird bipolar thing where a team can look ridiculous one week and terrible the next. Just look at the Eagles — they couldn’t manage to beat the pathetic Raiders, but two weeks later they made what was once a pretty good Giants team look absolutely pathetic. If you get the good Eagles, this game shouldn’t even be close, but if you get the bad Eagles the Cowboys could win in a landslide. This is one of many games that one just shouldn’t bet on.

Pittsburgh over DENVER (3)

Bob: Denver +3

What? A game that might actually be good? I don’t know what to think of this. These two teams match up very closely. They are both top-tier offenses and defenses. Pittsburgh has the better offense but Denver has the league-leading defense. Both of their defenses swallow up running games—Pittsburgh is the No. 1 team against the run and Denver isn’t far behind. Pittsburgh has a significantly better passing game but Denver is slightly better on the ground. At first blush, I want to give Pittsburgh the edge since it seems as if both teams’ ground games might be negated, but on further review Denver’s defense is so much better that I think this game will be really even. Since Denver is one of those places where I feel as though the home team still has an advantage, I’ll take the points.

Steve: Denver +3

I agree with your analysis, good sir! Denver’s defense should be able to negate Pittsburgh’s offensive attack, and you can’t overestimate the effect Mile High has on very fat lineman. I think this is a secret reason why Denver was so good for so many years with a smaller offensive line. Also, Kyle Orton is like the Forrest Gump of winning; the final line is never really impressive but he just seems to keep winning. Oh, and the both slept with a girl who had AIDS. ****

**** might not be true.

The picture is from here.