Pickin' pigskin with Bob and Steve: Week 12, Part 2

Picks brought to you today by the ridiculously hot Sofia Vergara of Modern Family [left], which is one of my favorite two new shows, along with Glee.

Miami over BUFFALO (3)

Bob: Miami -3

I wrote in Miami before I did any research, just because I feel as though the Dolphins have been far better than the Bills this season. Surprisingly, the numbers put these two teams relatively close to each other (with Miami still being superior, but not by that much). Buffalo has managed to win some games against decent opponents and managed to hang in with Jacksonville last week. However, I’ve decided that I don’t like to bet against the Dolphins, since they seem to like to spite me. This could be an interesting game, even if the opponents are fairly mediocre.

Steve: Miami -3

Even without Ronnie Brown, I think the Dolphins are vastly superior to the Bills, so I'm not sure why this number is so small. It's not so much that the Dolphins are now a juggernaut without the guy who really makes the Wildcat go. It's more that the Bills are a complete mess right now, and they don't have anyone who can really play quarterback all that well.

Seattle over ST. LOUIS (3)

Steve: Seattle -3

Another line that looks highly suspect to me. I don't know if the Seahawks can defend well, but the Rams' entire offense consists of handing Stephen Jackson the ball and getting out of the way, which can make it somewhat easy for opposing defenses. I also think that Hasselbeck will be able to laser the ball all over the field against the Rams' poor defense.

Bob: Seattle -3

I had to look this line up again, even though I was the one who originally wrote it down. So long as they aren't playing the Lions or the Browns, the opponents of the Rams should be favored by at least a touchdown. That isn't to say the Seahawks are great, but their woes seem to linked somewhat more to a difficult schedule than putridity. Still, the line hasn't moved much toward the Seahawks since I looked it up, meaning that Vegas doesn't think much of Seattle.

Speaking of putridity, I wonder how Rams fans feel about the beginning of the Kyle Boller era. Initially, fans must have had mixed feelings when Bulger went down. He was having an awful season, which came on the back of several other unspectacular seasons. So while you never want to see your starting quarterback go down, they were probably happy to get a chance to try out Kyle Boller. Of course, being excited to see what Kyle Boller (lifetime QB rating of just above 70 with 47 TDs and 47 picks in his sex year career) is something that will soon make you sick, because you just got excited at the chance to see yet another terrible quarterback. I imagine you kid of feel like Marty McFly when his mother came on to him--“alright, this hot chick is hitting on me. Wait, that's my Mom.” That's about the part where you go puke.

PHILADELPHIA over Washington (9)

Bob: Washington +9

I have no idea what to make of either of these two teams. The Redskins are hard to score on, but their offense is so anemic that it means they have a legitimate chance each week of being held to single digits. The Eagles seem like they’re good, but they don’t have a great record and nearly managed to lose to the Bears last week. I don’t feel great about this since I get to witness the ‘Skins’ putridity week after week, but I’ll take the points on a spread this wide with two paradoxically teams.

Steve: Philly -9

I've gone with the Redskins the past two weeks, so I think I've been on that bandwagon a bit too long. For these sole reasons, I'm going with the Eagles, even though they have a propensity to shit the bed against crappy teams – See the Raiders.

ATLANTA over Tampa Bay (12)

Steve: Tampa Bay +12

What a tricky game to pick. Frankly, the Falcons have been unimpressive to me, while the Bucs have been kinda, sorta spunky lately. If their coach wasn't a complete and total moron, I would feel more comfortable going with them. By the way, it seems like there are more and more bad coaches proliferating in the NFL than ever. Magini sucks, this Tampa Bay guy sucks, Brad Childress and Wade Phillips are going to keep their jobs through no fault of their own... Just a whole lot of suck out there.

Bob: Tampa Bay +12

I agree with you — these two teams are on two completely different trajectories. Atlanta has gone from looking pretty good to this side of bad, while Tampa Bay has looked a good deal better than they did for the first half of the season. I might take the Falcons if the spread weren't so wide, because they badly need a bounce-back game. I also don't feel great about the Bucs since they got throttled by a mediocre Saints defense last week. I better stop writing before I talk myself out of this pick.

Indianapolis over HOUSTON (3.5)

Bob: Houston +3.5

At some point the Colts are going to have a bad game. Alternatively, Houston is going to have to have a good game at some point. I think this could be the week where Houston has a good first quarter, the fans smell blood, and they help the team knock the Colts off this week. I would feel better about this pick if Owen Daniels were still around, but honestly I think Houston will be in good shape to face the Colts. They saw them a few weeks ago and were able to stay within three in Indy.

Steve: Indy -3.5

Meh. I would feel more confident about Houston if this line was higher. After their close calls the past couple of weeks, and the earlier scare this year with the Texans, I think the chances are high that the Colts just destroy the Texans.

CINCINNATI over Cleveland (14)

Steve: Cincy -14

The Bengals... You disappointed me last week. I hope it doesn't happen again this week.

Bob: Cincinnati -14

I'd feel better about this pick if the Bengals regularly scored more than 17-24 points per game (they have only done this twice). But I think the Bengals might take stock in your disappointment, because “the Emperor is not as forgiving as I am.”

NY JETS over Carolina (3)

Bob: J-E-T-S -3

This is the week of the three-ish point line. We have no less than six games that have a spread of three or three and one-half points, and the Pats-Saints game is listed at three some places. Hopefully this means we will have a lot of competitive games, and the matchups seem less awful than some previous weeks.

Like so many other matchups, though, these two teams are unknown quantities. Carolina has a decent, but by no means great, defense. Their offense can either be really good or really terrible. The Jets used to have a good defense, but the only team they’ve looked good against recently was the Raiders. The Jets offense gets the job done but the Sanchise keeps making stupid mistakes. The difference may be that the Jets will have the opportunity to run against the Panthers, who give up an average of 130 yards per game on the ground, which could help cover the Sanchise’s mistakes. Should be close, though.

Steve: Carolina +3

I agree that this seems like a close game, but on closer examination... The Jets are the better team to me, and they're home, and the margin is just so small. Although, the Sanchise just had a very Delhomme-like game last week... You know what, screw it. I'm bucking the conventional wisdom and going with the Panthers.

SAN FRANCISCO over Jacksonville (3)

Steve: Jags +3

To me, the Jaguars have been the more impressive team lately, so I'm not entirely sure why they're not favored against San Fran. Of course, I imagine this is because I angrily cut David Garrard the other week.

Bob: Jacksonville +3

Even though people have been big on the 49ers this year, this line is perplexing. The Jags have been statistically better, have the better record, and have just looked better. Not just lately, but all season. I had to re-check this line as well. This is an easy pick.

SAN DIEGO over Kansas City (13.5)

Bob: San Diego -13.5

The spread is a little rich for me, but the last time these two teams faced off—at Arrowhead—the Chargers won by 30. KC has looked good the last few weeks, but San Diego has looked better.

Steve: San Diego -13.5

I agree completely with your analysis. Although the Broncos have apparently decided not to punt on the rest of the reason, the Chargers now seem like the class of the division, as LDT has stepped into the Juvination Machine.

MINNESOTA over Chicago (11)

Steve: Minnesota -11

Another strange line to me. Why isn't Minnesota favored by more? They've dominated in their recent games, and the Bears have stunk. So the two teams meet, and the Vikings aren't favored by two touchdowns? It's not quite December yet, so I'm not willing to bet against Brett Favre yet.

Bob: Adrian Peterson -11

Brett Favre nuthin'. The Bears are in the bottom tier of the league against the run, so the show is going to be all about him.

Let me take this opportunity to mention an SNL skit I thought was particularly funny last week. It featured Joseph Gordon-Levitt, who played Tommy in Third Rock from the Sun (I didn't recognize that name initially, either). As a matter of fact, even though Joseph Gordon-Levitt doesn't have a whole lot of star power (the last movie I remember him in was 10 Things I Hate About You... wait, holy shit, he was Cobra Commander in G.I. Joe????), he was actually pretty funny, had a decent monologue, and was pretty good in the sketches of which he was a part. The sketch I found particularly funny features Gordon-Levitt portraying Lloyd Dobler (that's right, Steve's enemy John Cusack) in the iconic scene of Say Anything, where he hold a boombox over his head playing Peter Gabriel. This, interestingly, is the song Kristin and I danced to for our first dance at our wedding. I highly recommend you give the sketch a look-see.

TENNESSEE over Arizona (3)

Bob: Tennessee -3

Vince Young is to 2009 what Kurt Warner was to 2008 — a quarterback who people wanted to count out each week but for some reason was able to just keep winning. Arizona hasn’t played a quality team in a month and a half. Even though it’s a stretch to call the Titans “quality” at this point, Arizona may be surprised when an opponent actually puts up a fight.

Steve: Arizona +3

I've been driving the Vince Young bandwagon all season, but this week, he's facing a formidable adversary in either Kurt Warner or Matt Leinart. By the way, I really hope Leinart gets a clean shot at the starting job somewhere when he becomes a free agent. Vince Young has proven that some guys – him, Leinart, Brady Quinn – really deserve more of a shot at the starting position as opposed to these washed-up hazbeens. The Football Outsiders did a good article about this on ESPN, but I think some of these teams gave up far too quickly on their quarterbacks of the future.

NEW ORLEANS over New England (1.5)

Steve: New England +1.5

And again, I feel like I've typed this 500 times, but the line for this seems too small. The Saints aren't bigger favorites? Really? They are undefeated. I mean, it's silly that I'm complaining, since I am picking the Patriots anyway, but really. I thought the Saints would be favored by 3.5 at least. The Saints seem overrated to me because they play in the NFC, which is full of overrated teams to me – If it wasn't for a Dolphins' second half collapse, the Saints would have lost that game, and the Dolphins are a middle of the road AFC team.

Bob: New England +1.5

The Patriots have no excuse if they lose this game. They have a far superior defense and their offense ranks just behind the Saints in terms of yardage gained. The Saints have had the opportunity to play the Lions, Bills, Jets, Panthers, Rams, and Buccaneers, all of which have been below average teams. The best teams they have played have been the Eagles, Giants, and Dolphins, all of which really are middle-of-the-road. Then again, the Patriots absolutely should have beat the Colts, too.