Sunday, October 25, 2009

The $14 million question about J.D. Drew

See? J.D. can get his uniform dirty!

Recently, Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein has been ridiculed on WEEI, the number one New England (and especially Boston) sports radio station for a statement he made on their morning show the other day. He made the claim that right fielder J.D. Drew has more than justified his $14 million yearly salary, citing his OBP, slugging and defensive prowess.

The problem when evaluating Drew is twofold. 1) His attitude and demeanor are lax, to say the least, which enrages fans. He won't play unless he is completely healthy, which keeps his games total down from year to year as well. 2) His value is tied up primarily in advanced statistics, such as his ability to draw walks and take pitches. His counting stats – hits, runs batted in and home runs – aren't impressive according to conventional means.

To defend Drew a bit, he actually did play in a lot of games this year, more than the common fan realizes. He managed 137 games played this year, 22nd among American League outfielders. His OBP of .392 ranked second among outfielders, and his OPS – OBP plus slugging – was second to teammate Jason Bay.

I think what freaks people out is the $14 million price tag. However, similar to my previous point about the free agent market, the limited amount of options drives up prices on the few good players.

In that context, Drew is a good investment at $14 million. For example, in 2007, here are other players who made more than Drew: Jason Giambi, Todd Helton, Andy Pettitte, Bartolo Colon, Jason Schmidt, Richie Sexson and Mike Hampton. Drew comes in at #17 on that list, and all the previously cited players make more than him.

If you need more examples of overly-compensated players, then look no further than the Angels. Torii Hunter is making $18 million and Gary Matthews Jr. earns $10.4 million. This blog has a good wrap up of all the signings from 2007, and the Drew one has worked out a lot better than Dice-K, Carlos Lee, Matthews Jr., Schmidt, Jeff Suppan and Barry Zito, among players who signed for more than $10 million a season.

The J.D. Drew photos are from here and here.

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