Pickin' Pigskin with Bob and Steve: Week 7

In an effort to get more sports content up on my blog, my buddy Bob and I pick NFL football games every week. We do this with varying degrees of success, and sorry in advance if you are foolish enough to use our picks for ACTUAL gambling. In the words of the Hardly Boys, what are you, retarded?

San Diego over KANSAS CITY (5.5)

Steve: Kansas City +5.5

At this point, I feel like I'm in a sort of reverse Keith Hernandez zone. Since I'm so far behind, hey, why shouldn't I try to go against conventional wisdom when I can? Although we still haven't reached the halfway point of the season, and I could hypothetically catch up to you and Kristin, there obviously isn't a lot of incentive for me to do so. And besides, me picking the games “seriously” has not really led to much success.

Therefore, I'm going to pick more arbitrary, random and humorous reasons to pick teams. I'm going maverick like Sarah Palin, or being a wild card like Charlie from It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia, which is my new favorite show. It reminds me a lot of hanging out with Boutwell and Billy and Matt. And with that in mind, I'm going with the Chiefs, because the Chargers have so totally given up and died when it comes to Norv Turner.

Bob: San Diego -5.5

Picking Kansas City to upset San Diego this week and calling it “going maverick” is like shopping at Hot Topic to be a nonconformist. Are you shopping where most high schoolers shop? No, but you are shopping where every other goth-y, maladjusted teenager does. Oh, dude, where did you get those black jeans and that studded leather belt? It's so alternative!

Kansas City got a nice little win against the Redskins last week, but the Redskins are probably the most poorly coached team in the league — and that's saying a lot with Brad Childress and Norv Turner still in the NFL. Let's not forget that although the Chargers are 2-3, and their losses are against the Steelers, Ravens and Broncos, who are all above average teams. This isn't to say San Diego is good — their defense is a sieve when it comes to giving up touchdowns and LDT is a sulking mess during games. But Philip Rivers can still throw and they have a dangerous receiving corps. KC doesn't do anything well on defense (or offense), so I smell a cover here.

Indy over ST. LOUIS (13.5)

Bob: Indianapolis -13.5

Yeah, I'm going to have a hard time betting against Peyton Manning this season. Particularly when he is playing against a team that can't score or stop other teams' offenses. I sort of invited fate when I said the line for the Raiders-Philly game couldn't be high enough last week, but I get the same feeling about this game. I guess it isn't guaranteed that the Colts cover, but they should at least win this game handily. If they don't, they're going to have a lot of 'splainin' to do.

It's hard to believe that the Rams were in the “Greatest Show on Turf” only 10 years ago, in the Super Bowl eight years ago, and managed a 12-4 record six years ago. St. Louis will be lucky to win more than a game or two this year. Interestingly, the fate of the Rams seems to have tracked pretty closely with the career of Freddie Prinze, Jr.

Both were on top of the world in 1999, with the Rams winning the Super Bowl and Freddie Prinze, Jr. just coming off I Still Know What You Did Last Summer and She's All That. Both had a decent 2000, but the Rams got knocked off in the wild card round of the playoffs and Freddie Prinze, Jr. made some bombs (Down to You and Boys and Girls). They had a moderate bounce back in the beginning of the 21st Century (Rams make it to Super Bowl and Prinze makes Scooby-Doo), but haven't done much since.

Now the Rams have no hope for the future, and Prinze has been relegated to doing voices for animated films and Robot Chicken. It seems that the Rams and Prinze have the reverse-Midas Touch. Since Freddie Prinze is going to be on 24 next season, does that mean that show is going to die?

Steve: Indy -13.5

... Wow. I bet that is the first time anyone has paralleled the career of Freddy Prinze, Jr. to that of the St. Louis Rams, and I really hope no one else tries, because you've set the bar so high. Two more things about Freddy, since the Rams suck and the Colts should totally dominate them in this game:

1) He is married to Sarah Michelle Gellar, and if I was married to Sarah Michelle Gellar, I wouldn't spend as much time acting anymore either, I would be at home mackin' the bee's Jesus out of her. And this is even taking into account that I really dislike Buffy the Vampire Slayer. 2) Freddy was a writer for the WWE last year, and hosted WWE Raw this year, so he obviously is a wrestling fan. Taking into account one and two, and I think he's just a decent guy who made the most out of the fact that he's a beautiful bastard, even though he didn't have a ton of talent.

CINCY over Chicago (1.5)

Steve: Cincy -1.5

I'm not entirely sure why the Bengals are favored in this game; I'm guessing it's the home field advantage that is the tipping point. I mean, I'm taking them regardless, because they are my favorite team, and because I do think they can beat the Bears. But they've played so many close games this year that I'm not really convinced they can pull it out.

However, consider me shocked that they're even playing this well for Marvin Lewis. Coming into this season, I thought he was a lamer duck coach than FDR's legs. Now, he probably bought himself at least another year, barring an epic collapse, and Dick Jauron and Wade Phillips and Jim Zorn are the most likely to be fired in the middle of the season.

Bob: Chicago +1.5

Boy, did your Bengals betray me last week. There is no reason they should have lost to the Texans. Well, except for the fact that the Bengals might not be as good as we thought. They have been fortunate to draw a few teams who were in the midst of turmoil (Green Bay with injuries on their O-line, the Steelers sans Polamalu, and Baltimore off their loss to New England) and barely beat the awful Browns. Don't count on Marvin Lewis surviving to next season yet, if the Bengals collapse down the stretch he will be gone in a red-hot second.

Unfortunately, I am not so wild about Chicago either. Cutler is the quarterback I always thought he was and they haven't really matched up well against quality teams this year. I can see this game going either way, but right now I see the edge going to da Bears.

Green Bay over CLEVELAND (7.5)

Bob: Green Bay -7.5

Really? Green Bay is only favored by a bit more than a touchdown against a Browns team that is No. 31 on offense and No. 32 on defense by yardage? A team that was only able to win because it played an inept Buffalo team who could only put up three points? Meanwhile, Green Bay is ranked in the top ten in both categories. This line is inexplicable. This is the kind of game that makes me want to bet real money on these games. Hope you had a fun season, Mangina, because I don't think you'll be getting another NFL coaching job anytime soon.

Steve: Green Bay -7.5

Again, I concur with your take on the line, so let's focus on the absolute trainwreck that is Mangina. First, why does he keep waffling on Brady Quinn vs. Derek Anderson? Hasn't Anderson had more than ample opportunity to prove that he had a really flukey, flakey year that made them give him a silly contract? Just bite the bullet and play Quinn, and hope that he improves enough to be a viable starter the next year. (Similarly, I've been advocating the same thing with the Titans; Vince Young at least has a chance of being a decent quarterback down the road at a time when Kerry Collins will be collecting his NFL pension.)

And second, I do think Mangina gets at least another year with the Browns, even if this year is a complete trainwreck. I don't think they hired him expecting immediate results, and bad organizations have a tendency to give guys like Mangina too much rope. (See the Bengals and Marvin Lewis, despite his success so far this year.)

PITTSBURGH over Minnesota (4)

Steve: Minnesota +4

I must begrudgingly pick Brett Favre here. It is odd that I must now begrudgingly do anything related to Favre, because growing up, he was my favorite individual NFL player. I own not one, but two Favre jerseys – classic Green and Yellow, and the white they wore in the Super Bowl win. He earned the honor from my former favorite player Dan Marino, because Marino was getting very old and about to retire.

I'm picking the Vikings because they have looked a lot more impressive this season than the Steelers. Tomlin coached them up great last year, but this year, he's just doing silly things like insisting that Willie Parker still get carries. It would be like if Bill B. in New England decided that Kevin Faulk was going to be the starting running back over Corey Dillon back in the day. Ricockulous. Luckily, Tomlin finally changed his mind this week, but I still think the Vikings win on a late Favre touchdown.

Bob: Pittsburgh -4

The Steelers are the superior team. They have played better, even without Polamalu. The Steelers have the No. 2 run defense in the league. This game should finally be the one that brings Fav-re down back to Earth. Although last week should have been that, too. That guy is so “wily” and “gutsy,” he just forces his team to win! Except for that last playoff game for the Packers. Or down the stretch for the Jets last year. Or really for Green Bay at all any time since 1997. Ugh. I get the sick feeling in my stomach that Favre will make me regret this pick, but the Steelers really, really should win. Particularly since Polamalu is coming back.

Hmm, actually I just thought of something. Favre cameo-d in There's Something About Mary in 1998, the year after his last Super Bowl. Since then, his teams have made the playoffs only six times in 12 years, and his playoff record is 3-6. Since that movie, the Farrely brothers have managed to ruin not only his career, but that of Jim Carey post-Me, Myself, and Irene, Chris Rock post-Osmosis Jones, and all Red Sox fans post-Fever Pitch. Considering most of the Farrely brother movies are so good, it's odd that they seem to have torpedoed so many careers.

New England over Tampa Bay (14.5, in London)

Bob: New England -14.5

The Pats under Bill Belichick have largely managed to avoid “trap games” under his tenure, but this game has “trap” written on it with a capital “RAP.” The Pats should roll in this game, since they are superior on both sides of the ball and are going into a bye the next week. There is no reason this shouldn't be as one-sided as last week's game against the Titans, or my love of John Cusack. But the trip to London could mess up even the most well coached team and it's probably going to be hard for the team to get excited. In addition, Tampa Bay's one bright light is their pass defense. Fortunately, Tampa's run defense may have a way of making even Laurence “Kool Aid” Maroney look good.

Steve: New England -14.5

I am greedily pining for my fantasy team with this pick. Yeah, Brady earned me about 500 points last week, but that's not enough! I need morrreeee, like a zombie hungers for brains, or like Steve Phillips hungers for fat chicks.

HOUSTON over San Fran (3)

Steve: Houston -3

I feel like we have this game every couple of weeks. Both teams seem so very BLAH to me, and I have no idea whether either will show up from week to week. In fact, if I could skip one game out of all of them this week, this would be the one.

However, let me quit my whining and get to picking. If I HAVE to pick one of these two teams, I'm going with the one that flat out murdered me the other week in fantasy football. Eff you, Matt Schaub. You better reward me for picking your team this week, otherwise me and you will not be exchanging Christmas cards this year.

Bob: Houston -3

The number of blah teams this year, I feel, is unprecedented. Looking at the ESPN NFL Power Rankings for this week, I feel like the teams from place 21 to 32 have no chance of doing anything good this year. Above that, some of the teams are intriguing week-to-week, but I have a hard time getting worked up about any team higher than Green Bay, which is at No. 13. Since there are 12 teams that will make the playoffs (although the Top 12 in the Power Rankings won't necessarily all make the playoffs since the NFC/AFC split may not be even, and all the divisions may not be represented), that means that the rest of the season is almost mapped out. So I agree with you, some of these games are just painful to pick

Oh, this game. San Francisco looked so promising at the beginning of the season, but then they realized they had Shaun Hill at quarterback. This team, for the time being, has a low ceiling because of the putridity they have under center, and they don't seem to do anything well. On the other hand, Houston is relatively prolific on offense. Houston should win this game — but we all know this doesn't mean anything, since they have a talent at losing games they should win.

Jets over OAKLAND (6)

Bob: J-E-T-S -6

Boy, who to pick, Jamarcus Russell or the guy who has spent the last two weeks doing his best Jamarcus Russell impression? Mark “Pornstar” Sanchez has been simply awful the last two weeks while the Raiders somehow managed to embarrass the Eagles. I don't see how the Raiders manage to win two in a row, even considering how bad the Jets have been lately. Rex Ryan should realize he has a relatively prolific running game, and take the ball out of Sanchez's hands to get him back some confidence. Of course, we have seen no evidence yet that he is a good coach. I'll take the Jets for the time being.

Steve: Jets -6

Jamarcus Russell sucks. Mark Sanchez kind of sucks this year, but nowhere near as bad as Jamarcus. And if Rex Ryan was able to give Tom Brady fits, then I don't think Russell has any chance. As Football Outsiders has pointed out, Mr. Russell is on pace for a historically inaccurate season, and I don't think his accuracy is going to improve with constant blitzing.

CAROLINA over Buffalo (7)

Steve: Carolina -7

At first, my instinct was to take Buffalo, simply because they are coming off a big win versus the Jets and also getting seven points. But then I decided to go maverick on this, especially when I remembered that Trent Edwards would not be starting because of the concussion he suffered against the Jets.

This leaves the offense in the hands of Ryan Fitzpatrick, or Ryan Fitzgerald, or whatever his Ivy-educated ass is actually named. Listen, the National Football League is no longer a gentleman's game of the 1920s that sees the boys from Harvard playing those Yale scoundrels to a gentleman's tie on the quad in a gentleman's way. James J. “Gentleman” Yeager isn't walking through that door. Julius Peppers did not go to Harvard, or Yale, or Dartmouth, or Brown, or Cornell, or Penn, or Princeton, or Columbia. He will render Ivy boy's head fromist his neck and thenst lower his pantaloons and shit down his throat.

Bob: Buffalo +7

I never want to pick another Carolina game again. Ever. Jake Delhomme is so frustrating — the guy can throw five picks one week, get benched and booed off his home field, and somehow still find a way to keep his starting job and win a few games. You never know what you're going to get out of him. Trying to predict what Delhomme will give you is like trying to predict the weather next week by looking out the window. Good luck.

That being said, I wanted to concur with your pick against the Bills. But this is a wide spread for two mediocre teams, and this game looks like it will be a run fest. This game could go either way, and it will probably be close. I'll take the points.

New Orleans over MIAMI (6.5)

Bob: New Orleans -6.5

This is the sexy pick for upset of the week, and it sure would be exciting to see a team take down the Saints. I don't see it, though, since the teams are relatively even on defense and have similar run / pass splits in terms of performance. But Miami doesn't have Drew Brees and his set of receivers. So I don't really see Miami's path to victory. They match up well, and every team should have a down week sometime, but I'm not going to bet based on the hope that a team is uncharacteristic.

Steve: New Orleans -6.5

I agree with you about the Dolphins being a sexy pick. Hey, I have Ronnie Brown on my fantasy team, which I like to bring up constantly, so I know the flashy, coked-up allure of Miami better than anyone. However, at the end of the day, a classic quarterback like Drew Brees will bring the Saints victory better than the glitz of the Wildcat offense. That's just a fling, baby, the Saints are the real thing.


DALLAS over Atlanta (4)

Steve: Atlanta +4

While I don't think Dallas has been as truly bad as some would suggest, I still fucking hate them for no good reason. This is odd because I don't even dislike Tony Romo; I mean, he did dump America's sweetheart Jessica Simpson (or co-sweetheart with Mandy Moore), but he seems like a nice enough guy. (p.s. I just looked up Mandy Moore on Google, to make sure I was spelling her name correctly, and found out that she's two months younger than me, and still a stone cold fox. I then noticed that she was married to Ryan Adams, which I can't even hate that much, since he sings one of my favorite slow songs.)

But anyway, being nice is kind of a problem if you're trying to be a quarterback in the NFL. You can't be a nice guy. Tom Brady dumped his pregnant girlfriend, and while Big Ben didn't rape that girl, he didn't stick around and become her best friend either. Joe Namath is a drunk who drunkenly slurs love confessions to sideline reporters, and Peyton Manning would advertise an abortion clinic if they paid him enough. And Steve McNair apparently was not a nice guy either.

Tony Romo just seems like a swell guy, the personality-less third lead in a buddy movie. Like, the only other friend of two friends; he never even really blew up on TO. And for these reasons, the Cowboys won't win shit with him around.

Bob: Dallas -4

I have been preaching this all year. Dallas isn't that bad — on offense. Their defense is still subpar, but it's not as bad as it was to start off the season. People like to blame Tony Romo, but a quarterback can only do so much for a team. Your “nice guys finish last” assertion is an interesting one, but I don't think I agree with you on Peyton Manning not being a nice guy because he's a sellout. And as you noted, Tony Romo is only nice to the point that he dumped Jessica Simpson because she was a bad luck charm — on the night before her birthday, no less. Stone cold. His problem isn't being nice, it's that he's got "Donovan McNabb Under Pressure" Syndrome.

GIANTS over Arizona (7)

Bob: G-Men -7

I know the Giants got shellacked last week (BWA HA HA), I have a hard time seeing why they are only favored by a touchdown against Arizona. What has Arizona done this year? Beaten mediocre Jacksonville, Houston, and Seattle teams? Ooh, scary. I guess a touchdown is generally a large spread, but this year a lot of games haven't been close. The Giants should be able to bounce back from last week's putrid showing.

Steve: Giants -7

This spread does seem too small, given how both of these teams play. The Giants are more successful at airing it out, and again to bring up fantasy football, I have the better Steve Smith on my team. Hopefully, Tom Coughlin gets super pass happy, infected by the sweet scent of Kurt Warner's crazy pass tendencies.

Philadelphia over WASHINGTON (7)

Steve: Philly -7

I sure hope Kristin is sticking by the Redskins, because I'd love to pick up a game here. Yeah, the Eagles effed up against the Raiders, but they always seem to bounce back after stinker games. Similar to my preceding rant about Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb seems like a nice guy, but this isn't the Super Bowl.

Meanwhile, the Redskins have a bye coming up after this game, so I think the potential is high for them intentionally throw the game. One, because they would make a crapload of money by doing so, and two, because it would get Jim Zorn fired. If I was Roger Goodell, I would be carefully monitoring this game. I mean, it's hard to prove that the Redskins are throwing a game, because they set the bar so low from week to week, but I'll know the fix is in when Clinton Portis “accidentally” throws a lateral to Trotter for an easy six points.

Bob: Philadelphia -7

How dare you. Even after she wrote you that nice thank you note, you take a dump on her 'Skins. It's not her fault that she was raised to root for a team that has the most evil owner in the NFL. As a matter of fact, I'm hoping Snyder can take his evilness up to a new level this week, and fire Zorn at halftime during a nationally televised game. It's hard to hate a guy who got unfairly thrust into a head coaching position like Zorn, but he is just THAT bad. I feel like Norv Turner and Art Shell at least have a sense of what they are doing wrong as they miscoach a team. Zorn doesn't seem to have that self-awareness.

That being said, the Eagles and Redskins have relatively equivalent defenses. The big difference is the Redskins' ineptitude on offense. With Zorn having just been stripped of his playcalling duties, it's possible the Redskins could begin to turn the corner on offense. This team is not going to be good, but it should be at least okay. I won't bet that the Redskins will solve what ills them on offense overnight (although anything is better than Zorn calling plays), but this game could be closer than it looks on paper.

The Hardly Boys pictures are from here and here. The picture of Freddy and Sarah Michelle Gellar is from here. The pictures of Mandy Moore come from this style blog that I agree with. The "old tyme" football player is from this costume web site. And the Brett Favre picture, circa There's Something About Mary, is from here.