Down on the Farm with the Red Sox - June 27

Last month, I looked at some Red Sox players who would be called up in the event of injury. Since that day, Josh Reddick, Daniel Nava, Felix Doubront, Angel Sanchez and Dustin Richardson have indeed made their debuts with the big club because of the plague-level maladies suffered by the Sox. Frankly, if you see any more injuries at the Major League level (I'm looking in your direction, Victor Martinez), then you'll probably just see the Sox swing some minor cash deals to pave over holes. The only other option in the minors at this point is rushing prospects like Jose Iglesias, Casey Kelly and Lars Anderson.

With that in mind, and since we're near the all-star break, I thought I'd take a look at how the Red Sox preseason top prospects are doing now at their respective levels. I've noted where they were on the Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America lists to start the season.

Ryan Westmoreland, outfielder
Rankings: BP #1, BA #1
Current Level: None

Well, if you haven't heard of Westmoreland's struggles, I imagine that you're not a Red Sox fan. He was diagnosed with a tumor on his brain stem, and underwent an operation on it in March. While it appeared successful, the severity of the operation means there is no guarantees about his future in life, nevermind baseball. I'm hoping the best for him, and you can read more about his progress back in an excellent Providence Journal article here.

Casey Kelly, pitcher
Rankings: BP #2, BA #1
Current Level: Portland, AA

Kelly has been inconsistent so far this year, which is surprising, since he agreed to focus on pitching instead of being a two-way player this year. (In previous years, Kelly also played shortstop once he hit his innings cap for pitching.) His overall ERA is 5.05 in 14 starts. Control is the big problem - He has gone from walking 1.5 batters per nine innings to 3.31 per nine this year. He is also giving up twice at many home runs. While this is a hiccup in his performance, he is still just 20, and he has minimal experience on the mound.

Josh Reddick, outfielder
Rankings: BP #3, BA #3
Current Level: Pawtucket, AAA

Reddick has been up to Boston twice because of injuries, and didn't really impress much there. After a demotion on June 25, he returned to Pawtucket, and he's 1-for-7 in two games. That hit was a home run, so that's good at least. BP's Kevin Goldstein said that he has a case of big league-itis, and his yearly line at Pawtucket has borne that out - a .215 average in 219 at-bats, with a .268 OBP and .370 slugging. He needs a strong second half to be seen as anything more than a fourth outfielder / emergency call-up now, since the next guy is hot on his heels...

Ryan Kalish, outfielder
Rankings: BP #4, BA #5
Current Level: Pawtucket, AAA

Kalish has played his way up to Pawtucket with a torrid streak at Portland. Assuming he doesn't get sent done, in 150 at-bats Kalish hit .293, with a .404 OBP and slugged .527. He was promoted to Pawtucket on June 1, but he's hit only .211 in 11 games. It isn't really cause for alarm yet though, as he spent a couple weeks on the Triple A disabled list because of a hip flexor issue. While he still needs to prove himself in Pawtucket, if he hits like he did in Portland, he probably makes Ellsbury or J.D. Drew expendable.

Anthony Rizzo, first base
Rankings: BP #5, BA #8
Current Level: Portland, AA

Rizzo is currently at Portland, although I'm not entirely sure why. In 29 games and 117 at-bats with Salem, he could only manage a .248 average, and a decent but not great slugging of .479. Those numbers have plummeted in Portland, which is generally viewed as a pitcher's park, to a slash line of 244 / 288 / 406. To be a decent first base prospect, you have to mash the #%@! out of the ball, and Rizzo is currently like a powerless Adam Dunn at the plate. He's averaging a strikeout a game so far this year.

Jose Iglesias, shortstop
Rankings: BP #6, BA #9
Current Level: Portland, AA

The rap on Iglesias coming into this season was that while he was the second coming of Alex Gonzalez or Orlando Cabrera with the glove, his offense left a lot to be desire. He's doing the best to dispel concerns about his bat though, as he is smoking the ball at Portland. He's hitting .306, and while he only has five walks and no homers, the average alone makes him an asset at shortstop. If this list was redone, he'd probably be vying for the #1 prospect honor with Kalish. With Marco Scutaro hitting well in Boston and signed through 2011, Iglesias can be left in the minors for now to solidify his progress at the plate.

Junichi Tazawa, pitcher
Rankings: BP #7, BA #6
Current Level: None

Tazawa had Tommy John surgery on his arm before the season began, and thus, he won't pitch at all this year. His upside looked to be more of a #2 or #3 starter, not a dominant ace, so the surgery probably knocks him down a spot or two from that peak.

Michael Bowden, pitcher
Rankings: BP #8, BA NR
Current Level: Pawtucket

Remember Abe Alvarez? He was a finesse lefty who threw strikes for Pawtucket in three full seasons with them, but he only made one Major League start and four appearances. He was finally cut from Pawtucket in 2008, and he hasn't resurfaced since then. He was always on the fringe for an emergency start in Boston, but he didn't really have overpowering stuff. (Dear Michael Bowden: You might want to study up on ole Abe's career, and ask for your release as soon as you can. In a pitching-poor organization like Kansas City or Houston, you would have already made a dozen or so Major League starts by now.)

Lars Anderson, first base
Rankings: BP #9, BA #4
Current Level: Pawtucket

Anderson was seen as a great prospect following a 2008 season where he hit 317 / 417 / 517, but since then, some injuries in 2009 really hurt his prospect status. He has recovered a bit this year, hitting .355 in 17 games with Portland to force a promotion to Pawtucket. So far though, he hasn't been able to solve Triple A pitching, hitting just .210 in 51 games and 176 at-bats. On the plus side, he has drawn 21 walks, which has elevated his OBP to .307. Unfortunately, he's not hitting for much power, with a slugging of .358. While his prospect status has been revived this year, he needs to start hitting at Pawtucket to be seen as anything more than a bench bat.

Reymond Fuentes, center field
Rankings: BP #10, BA #7
Current Level: Greenville

Fuentes is essentially Ellsbury v2.0, although this doesn't necessarily mean he is an improvement on the original model. In his first full season, he's batting .273, but his OBP is only .325. He has just 10 walks in 227 at-bats, and a slugging of .396, so he needs to work on taking pitches to get something he can mash. His speed isn't in question though - He has 27 steals and has only been caught once. Assuming he can maintain his average as he moves up the chain, he projects as an average center fielder because of his insane stolen base ability, which is what Ellsbury is now as well.

Derrik Gibson, second / short
Rankings: BP #11, BA #10
Current Level: Greenville

In 2008 and 2009, Gibson flashed an extreme eye, with more than 100 points of on-base solely from walks. That has dissipated a bit though in Greenville, as (I'm assuming) pitchers challenge him directly more. As a result, he's still hitting for little average (.239) without the walks to inflate his OBP (.308). He still isn't hitting for any power, as his slugging is a paltry .307, so it looks like he'll be stuck with the Drive until he can hit some of his own. (Ha ha, see what I did there? Priceless, I know.)

David Renfroe, pitcher / third
Rankings: BP #12, BA NR
Current Level: Lowell

Renfroe's first professional season is this year, and so far, it has been rough for the righty at the plate. He's only played nine games and has just 36 at-bats, and only has seven hits and 11 strikeouts. None of the hits have been for extra bases, which is a bit of a disappointment, considering that Renfroe is listed at 6'3" and 200 pounds. He was a high school pitching prospect as well, so there is some who think he might also give that a go, but so far he's only played in the field. Small sample size applies, but so far, Renfroe isn't doing much to prove he deserved the big bonus he got to sign for the Sox.

Alex Wilson, pitcher
Rankings: BP #13, BA NR
Current Level: Portland

Although he's only in his second professional season, Wilson is already at Portland because he's 23 and dominated Salem earlier this year. In 11 starts and 55 innings there, he struck out 50 and only walked 15. While Prospectus thinks his future is as a reliever, the Sox are letting him start for now. He needs to build on his success at Salem with Portland. His overall line of a 6.28 ERA is deceptive - He got shelled for seven runs in his first start, but in his two starts since then, he's given up three earned runs in 11 innings. Stamina is definitely a concern, since he didn't make it past the sixth in either start.

Stolmy Pimental, pitcher
Rankings: BP #14, BA NR
Current Level: Salem

Pimental hasn't excelled so far this year, continuing a trend of disappointing performances as he has moved up the Red Sox chain. He has gone from a 2.90 ERA in 2007 to 3.14 in 2008, 3.82 in 2009 and 4.54 this year. His strikeout rate has fell and walk rate risen along the way, suggesting that he's no longer a starting pitching prospect without a significant breakout.

Che-Hsuan Lin, left field
Rankings: BP #15, BA NR
Current Level: Portland

Speaking of continuing trends, Lin still isn't hitting for nearly enough power in the minors to be seen as a viable corner outfielder in the majors. While his on-base is 100 points higher than his average (.261 vs. .366) thanks to a good batting eye, his slugging is a paltry .310. He either needs to move to shortstop or bat .300 to be a viable option in the majors. Lin doesn't add enough on the basepaths (seven steals vs. nine caught stealing) to make up for his lack of power in a corner, especially with Kalish ahead of him on the depth chart.

The old prospector photo is from here.

Down on the farm with the Red Sox - May 30

Not this farm.

Since the television season is for the most part over, except for the summer series and replacement shows, I'll be peppering in some sports analysis here and there. However, since there are a lot of good blogs about the Red Sox, and especially the Sox on the Major League level, I thought I'd focus on the minor league system.

Specifically, I want to look at a couple things. One, anyone on the AAA or AA roster that might be called up in the case of an injury. Two, any prospects who were well-regarded coming into the season. (I'll be using Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America lists for this.) And three, anyone who has a ridiculous statistical line so far in the season. I'll look at AAA and AA individually tonight. All stats seem to be updated through May 29, with no May 30 games included.

Triple A - Pawtucket - Batting
Josh Reddick, CF, 23. According to Friday's chat with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, Reddick is pressing. He specifically wrote, "Triple-A-itis. Tasted the big leagues and wants to get back, so he's trying to get five hits or a five-run home run in every at-bat." That might be an understatement, as Reddick is hitting .181 in 171 AB, with five home runs. Even his defense has seemingly fallen apart, as he has four errors too. While he might want to be back in the Majors, at this point a stint in Portland seems more likely, to try and restore some confidence at the plate. He has gone from the outer fringes of the outfield decision at the end of the year to no consideration at all with his early season performance. Personally, I blame the ridiculously ugly porn mustache he is sporting in the picture to the right.

Aaron Bates, 1B / DH / OF, 26. Bates is a little old for a prospect, but more importantly, he's hitting like the new Doug Minky. The problem is that Bates is at Triple A, and not in the majors, and also, Tom Kelly and Tony Muser are no longer managing. He's hitting .238, and while he's got a good eye - his OBP is boosted about a hundred points because of 24 walks - his slugging isn't sufficient for a first baseman, corner outfielder or designated hitter. Last year, it looked like he might be able to fill the Jeff Bailey role this season. Now, if there is an injury at the Major League level, the Sox would probably kick the tires on a trade, or the next guy on this list...

Lars Anderson, 1B / DH, 22. As disappointing as last season was for Anderson, killing any chance of him being in the 1B picture this year for the big club, he has shown glimpses of his prospectdom. He started the year at Portland, but he was moved up quickly to Pawtucket after mashing five homers and hitting .355 with a .408 OBP in 17 games. He hasn't lit the world on fire yet in Pawtucket, but he's had a respectable line of 235 / 337 / 424 in 25 games and 85 AB. He's still just 22, so if the Sox do need a guy to come up for a few days and hit, I think Anderson is the most likely candidate.

Jorge Jimenez, 3B, 25. Well, uh, it's a good thing that Youkilis or Lowell can play third if the Sox have an injury to Beltre. Jimenez is old for a prospect, and he's hitting a paltry .252 with no power at Pawtucket.

Tug Hulett, 2B, 27 and Angel Sanchez, SS / SB, 26. Both guys are strictly "break glass in case of emergency" players, similar to last week, when Sanchez got a cup of coffee because Marco Scutaro was a little dinged up. Hulett has been horrible, despite his nifty name, with a line of 185 / 304 / 331 in 45 games. Sanchez has hit a little bit, sporting a .308 batting average, but just seven of his hits have been for extra bases. He only has one stolen base too, so he's not an asset in the running game either.

Daniel Nava, OF, 27. If the Sox need another OF for some reason - maybe Darnell McDonald gets hurt, or Drew tweaks something bad enough that he has to hit the DL - then Nava has a shot of getting called up. He's hitting OK in the minors, sporting a .293 average and six dingers in 42 games. Nothing special, given his age, but the Sox could take a spin with him as opposed to going after someone outside of the organization.

Dusty Brown, C, 27. He's basically waiting for his chance to get out of the Red Sox organization to a team with an unstable catching situation, and hoping to hook on as a back-up. His line at Triple A isn't bad, but it's nothing you try to accommodate at the Major League level - 268 / 354 / 482. If Varitek goes down, then Brown is a reasonable facsimile of his average offensive production, between last year and this year.

Triple A - Pawtucket - Pitching
Michael Bowden, 23 and Boof Bonser, 28. Ehhh, so much for the Red Sox pitching depth in the minors. Bowden has turned into another Abe Alvarez. On a bad team, he would have been on the fringes of the Major League rotation the past couple years. On the Red Sox, he's been left to linger in AAA, and this year he's been horrid to start the year - 5.83 ERA in 41.2 innings. His 3.13 in 24 starts last year already seems like a distant memory. Bonser has been even worse, with a 8.03 ERA in seven starts. He seems like a prime candidate to be released when the Red Sox need a roster spot.

Adam Mills, 25. If the Sox did need someone to make an emergency start, Mills is probably the guy, assuming they just don't reach down to AA. He has an acceptable 3.84 ERA in 53.2 innings. He has slowly worked his way up the Red Sox system with solid, unspectacular efforts each year. He is strictly a pitch-to-contact guy, with a low strikeout rate, suggesting he isn't much besides filler.

Felix Doubront, 22. He was moved up after dominating Double A to the tune of a 2.51 ERA in 43 innings, with 38 strikeouts. However, stamina appears to be an issue - He averaged about five innings a start in Double A, and he's at three innings per start in Triple A. I'm not sure what the reasoning is, but he's the only genuine starting pitching prospect at Triple A for the Sox right now.

Dustin Richardson, 26 and Robert Manuel, 26. With Joe Nelson already up, these two are next in line for a shot in the pen. Because of their age, neither projects as a superstar. However, Richardson has been dominating Triple A hitters, with 36 K's in 27 innings. He pitched 3.1 scoreless innings for the Red Sox last year, so I imagine he'll be up if they decide to cut bait on Nelson, Ramon Ramirez or someone else. Manuel has a better ERA, but less strikeouts, suggesting his Major League ceiling might be a bit lower.

Double A - Portland - Batting
Jose Iglesias, SS, 20. The book on Iglesias has been that he is a slick fielder, with potential at the plate in the future. He's doing his best to dispel the second portion of that, batting a pretty-decent 306 / 340 / 408 for Portland, which is generally considered a pitcher's park. He doesn't have any dingers, but he has nine doubles and three triples. Although he's young, given the dearth of a real SS prospect at Pawtucket, it wouldn't surprise me to see him promoted at some point this year, with an outside shot at supplementing Scutaro as soon as 2011 if keeps hitting.

Ryan Kalish, LF, 22. He now has to be considered clearly ahead of Kalish in terms of an outfield prospect who could actually fit a spot created by the departing J.D. Drew, Mike Cameron or Ellsbury. I think it's more likely that the Red Sox explore free agency, but Kalish is at least injecting himself into the conversation with his mixture of hitting (.288), power (eight dingers), patience (27 walks) and speed (13 steals). Like Iglesias, he strikes me as a guy who could force his way to the Major League level with a really strong second half.

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, 20. Rizzo was a popular sleeper pick as far as prospects coming into this year because of his power potential. While he does have seven dingers between Single and Double A, his combined average is .254. Given that he plays first base, he needs to start putting up some monstrous lines to be a viable big league option.

Luis Exposito, C, 23. Mentioned as a possible future starter at catcher, Exposito has put up a ho-hum line at Double A of 259 / 337 / 377. This is in line with his A-Ball performance in 2009, and rebuffs a good end of the season in Portland. Right now, his ceiling looks like that of a Major League back-up.

Nate Spears, 2B, 25. He's not really a prospect, since he's 25 and in Double A. However, I have to admit being drawn to him a bit because of 34 freakin' walks. (Mark Bellhorn is one of my favorite Red Sox of all-time, so sue me!) He's only hitting .257, but the walks have pushed his OBP to .404. They probably go away as pitchers challenge him more at higher levels, but they sure be tasty right now. He came over to the Red Sox as a free agent from the Cubs, who apparently tried to beat the selectiveness out of him last year.

Double A - Portland - Pitching
Casey Kelly, 20. Considered the best pitching prospect in the Red Sox's system, his Double A season so far has been inconsistent. He has an OK era of 4.32, with 32 K's in 33 innings, suggesting his stuff is still fine. However, he has to trust that stuff and cut down on the walks - He's allowing one walk per two innings. He's still a great prospect, but the early season talk of him making a late appearance in the bullpen, after allowing one earned run in his first eight innings, seems like lunacy now.

Robert Coello, 25. Definitely a bit old for Double A, but the swing pitcher - he has two starts and 10 relief appearances - has 36 strikeouts in 33.2 innings. His ERA isn't as impressive, just a modest 3.21, but he should probably be bumped up to Pawtucket to see what he can do, given his age.

Got a question on someone I didn't cover? Leave me his name in the comments, and I'll see what I can do.